Minutes
before finance minister Yashwant Sinha was to present his Budget
2002 to the Lok Sabha, the Confederation of India Industry's secretary
general Tarun Das told television audience what he expected of Budget
2002: ''Last year we expected the finance minister's budget to perk
up industry, but that didn't happen. This year we are keeping our
expectations modest.''
It's a sad commentary on the state of affairs
that even a decade after India liberalised its economy and threw
open a host of industries previously controlled by State-owned companies,
Indian industry still expects the finance minister to guide its
fortunes. Every year, before and after the budget, the finance minister-his
team included-is hauled over burning coal for not doing enough,
and industry itself sits back to either whine about how bad things
are or to lobby for more protection. That, unfortunately, is helping
neither the economy nor the companies themselves.
The Loose Ends
There are some reforms that Sinha owes industry.
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Labour reforms,
for instance. Although the Union Cabinet recently gave its in-principle
approval to a move freeing units with less than 1,000 workers
to hire and fire, it could well be nixed by the Parliament.
Power sector is another area where reforms are desperately needed.
But the heart of the problem is infrastructure and interest
rates. Industry simply needs the government to spend on improving
the road and port sectors-especially since the political will
to back user fee-based projects is lacking. And with inflation
hovering at 1.3 per cent, corporates could have done with a
steeper cut in small savings rates. |
Consider: The rate of industrial growth at 2.3
per cent (April-December 2001) is the lowest in the decade. Over
all, the economic growth has slowed to 5.4 per cent constrained,
as Sinha noted in his speech, by industry's dismal performance.
(China, on the other hand, is clipping at 9 per cent year on year.)
Worst affected are some sectors like textiles, steel, auto-ancillaries,
chemicals, and capital goods, where local production is actually
shrinking. Even in traditionally strong export segments such as
garments, India has been losing out to newer players like Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka, and Taiwan. As a result, economic growth has not translated
into many new jobs (See Employment Generated) for the people of
India.
No doubt, there are several genuine problems
relating to infrastructure and cost of capital. But little seems
to have been done in areas of product development, design, quality,
or manufacturing systems. Indeed, few companies even want to compete
globally. Instead, they are still clamouring for tariff-led protection.
Notes Rajendra S. Lodha, President of FICCI: ''One reason why India
Inc. has failed to make the most of the liberalised scenario is
the mindset of family-run businesses. Despite their best intentions,
payback on investment was the key. But that's not the way to go
about things, especially now.''
The early 90s did see a rash of private sector
investment into industries newly opened up. For example, steel,
power, automobiles, and refining were some industries where big-ticket
investments happened. But most of these new projects ran into trouble
because of either the promoter's ineptitude or bureaucratic bottlenecks.
In the power sector, the precarious health of state electricity
boards and the lack of payment guarantees from state governments
kept projects from achieving financial closure. Similarly, in ports
and roads, the uncertainty over collection of user fee has kept
private investors away. Says Ravi Uppal, Managing Director, ABB
(India): ''Private sector participation is dependant on a secure
revenue model, and freedom from political interference.''
One of the pet peeves of industry for not investing
is the high cost of capital in India. But is that really as serious
a problem as it is made out to be? Apparently not. According to
Oxus Research, headed by economist Surjit Bhalla, the real rate
of interest (nominal rate of interest minus inflation) in the country
over the last five years has more or less tracked global rates.
For instance, between 1997 and 1999, real interest rate was 2.2
per cent, compared to 7.1 per cent in China and 3.2 per cent in
the US. The following year too, India's interest rate at 3 per cent
was comparable to that of the US and China. Now may be with inflation
sinking to 1 per cent, there is a real case for interest rate cuts.
Perhaps the biggest reason why Indian companies
had to fund projects with relatively expensive capital is the way
in which they used and then dumped the primary market. Thousands
of crores were raised in fresh equity, but little was returned to
the investors. The money was either invested in unviable projects
or, as a new report from the Reserve Bank of India points out, simply
diverted to other activities. Points out Shitin Desai, Managing
Director, DSP Merrill Lynch: ''Once that confidence was shaken,
it became very hard for companies to raise equity, thus bringing
down the whole business of capital investment.''
That all is not well with industry's management
skills is also evident from bad loans that banks and financial institutions
have been racking up since the boom years of early and mid 90s.
At last count, the total stock of NPAs in India stood at Rs 60,000
crore. Is it possible that India Inc. did not fully comprehend the
force with which a free market economy would hit at it?
Sanjiv Goenka, President of CII and Vice Chairman
of RPG Enterprises, makes a candid admission: ''It is a fact that
it took us a while to understand it.'' Citing an example from his
own group, Goenka explains how his power company, CESC, had drawn
up ambitious plans, but now realises that much of it was untenable.
''We could not function with the licence raj attitude. We had to
reinvent ourselves and on occasions we were unable to do so,'' says
Goenka with rare candour.
What India Inc. has to realise is this: that
budgets are only a book-keeping exercise for the government. In
fact, in mature economies like the US, budgets are a non-event.
In another few years, once customs and excise duties have been fully
rationalised and made WTO-compatible, there will be little for corporates
to look forward to in a budget. Survival is a battle that companies
need to fight on their own. And it's time India Inc. woke up to
that reality.
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