SECTORAL
PICKS
All sectors across the board
STOCK PICKS
Infosys, Dr Reddy's |
"Unlocking value in PSU shares is now
becoming a reality. And there are still some opportunities as
valuations remain low."
Dilip Madgavkar,
Chife Investment Officer, Prudential ICICI Asset
Management |
The
budget doesn't matter. That's right, the cover-theme of this issue
of Business Today, one to which a dozen-odd pages of valuable paper
has been devoted isn't all that relevant to successful investing.
The basis of that claim isn't the traditional
pre-Budget rise in the Sensex (it was up by over 150 points in just
12 trading sessions at the time this article went to press); it
is the fact that a clutch of fund managers-not just an ordinary
clutch, but one of high-performers-believes investing in the stockmarket
has never been as easy (and probably will never again be) as it
is now.
Samir Arora, the Singapore-based head of emerging
markets at Alliance Capital-he manages some of India's most successful
funds-is one such sanguine individual.
''I am super-bullish,'' he says. Prod the man
a little and he rattles off the reasons for his positive bent of
mind. ''The major concerns are out of the way. Low interest rates,
attractive valuations, good corporate performance, and large retail
cash positions with retail investors still underweight on equity.''
There's a common thread running through the
picks of fund managers like Arora: high growth companies with P-E
(price-earning) multiples in the 15-20 band. A sweep as broad as
that can't but transcend sectoral biases.
SECTORAL
PICKS
IT, Automotive
STOCK PICKS
Digital, Satyam, Hero Honda, e-Serve International |
"Interest rates are low, valuations,
attractive, and there are large cash positions with investors
still underweight on equity."
Samir Arora,
Head, (Emerging Markets), Alliance Capital |
Indeed, as Prashant Jain, the Chief Investment
Officer of Zurich India Mutual Fund puts it, investors should find
it hard to make a wrong move now; it's that obvious. ''Except tech
stocks, almost all other stocks are undervalued. When the rally
happens, it is certain to be widespread.''
Jain's preferred example to prove how undervalued
stocks are is the public sector oil major Indian Oil Corporation
(IOC). An IOC Bond offers investors a return of 8 per cent. And
an IOC stock that of 7 per cent. But the stock also holds the promise
of appreciation. Ergo, it is a good buy.
Take Your Pick
There's a strange buzz doing the rounds of
the markets these days: be choosy about scrips and indiscriminate
about sectors, it goes.
Is this the right time to enter the market,
then, and buy select scrips across sectors? It may well be, says
Dileep Madgavkar, the Chief Investment Officer of Prudential ICICI
Asset Management. ''With the index at 3,400-levels, the (upward)
trend has barely begun.''
That it has: the scrips of fast moving consumer
goods (FMCG) and financial services companies, and banks have shown
little sign of movement these past few months, and there is an even
chance that they will now rise.
SECTORAL
PICKS
All sectors except IT
STOCK PICKS
HLL, Dr Reddy's |
"Except tech stocks, almost all other
stocks are undervalued. When the rally happens, it is certain
to be widespread."
Prashant Jain,
Chief Investment Manager, Zurich India Mutual Fund |
Then, there's the little factoid about the economy.
''Economic indicators are showing an upswing,'' says K.N. Siva Subramanian,
Fund Manager, Pioneer ITI Mutual Fund. ''There should be better
growth in economy-related stocks like cement, steel, and consumer
vehicles this year.''
The operative term is 'better growth'. Gone
are the days when only tech scrips could hold the promise of growing
at over 25 to 30 per cent. Today, there are scrips in several other
sectors that can do so with ELAN.
Pharma is one such sector, and current valuations
seem to bear that out. ''(Investors should pick) Pharmaceutical
companies that have international growth engines, opportunities
in the international markets, and have built a fairly robust model
whether in the area of drug discovery, drug delivery, or selling
branded formulations in regulated markets,'' explains Bharat Shah,
Chief Investment Officer, Birla Sunlife Mutual Fund.
As for tech, the recommendation of fund managers
ranges from investors being selective about the scrips to pick to
selling on dips to avoiding the sector altogether.
SECTORAL
PICKS
Pharma, Software Services
STOCK PICKS
Dr Reddy's, Infosys, Hero Honda |
"Investors should pick pharma companies
that have international growth engines are robust models."
Bharat Shah,
Chief Investment Officer, Birla Sun Life MF |
Several fund managers are still bullish on Infosys,
Wipro, and Satyam; Birla Sunlife's Shah is rooting for BPO hothouse
e-serve; and Alliance's Arora boasts Digital Globalsoft among Alliance
95's top 10 holdings. ''India has a natural advantage in software,''
exults Shah who has actually pared down the exposure of the funds
he manages to the sector. ''It may not be the same companies, but
the basic proposition of infotech remains valid.''
Track Your Managers
Those investors who're still feeling queasy
about blindly following the fund managers need only look at the
queer case of PSU scrips. BPCL, HPCL, and Container Corp have been
on every fund manager's list-of-choice for at least a few years.
Now that the government has finally got its
disinvestment act together, most of them are sitting pretty. As
Madgavkar of Prudential ICICI puts it: ''Unlocking value in these
shares is now becoming a reality. And there are still some opportunities
as (PSU) valuations remain low.'' That means there is still time
for investors to pick PSU stocks cheap, although the early-February
run on these scrips has witnessed a significant amount of re-rating.
SECTORAL
PICKS
Economy-related sectors and information technology
STOCK PICKS
Infosys, HPCL |
"There should be better growth in economy-related
stocks like cement, steel, and consumer vehicles."
K.N. Siva Subramanian,
Fund Manager, Pioneer ITI MF |
Those investors uncomfortable with the sectoral
approach will find enough individual picks in the portfolio of successful
fund managers. These range from obvious choices like Hero Honda
and Ashok Leyland-multi-axle vehicles are in vogue-to not so obvious
ones like TVS Suzuki.
Then, there are the scrips of companies that
are global players in specialised categories. Heard of Moser Baer,
Hindustan Inks, and Essel Packaging? The first has built global
capacities in magnetic media; the second in printing inks; and the
third in packaging.
To find gems such as these, investors should
look closely at the portfolios of the funds being managed by the
men featured here.
Arora, for instance, has placed a small bet
on UB doing well. Why? The Indian beer industry should do well given
its low base, and the takeover of Scottish & Newcastle by UB
bodes well for the company.
As for the budget and what it means for our
investing strategy, we'd like to leave you with a quote by one of
our featured fund managers Sivasubramanian of ITI Pioneer. ''Most
big announcements have already come.'' So, what are you waiting
for?
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