For
the better part of the past four years, foreign investors have been
losing interest in the Indian stockmarket. With reason too. For
much of this period-save a short-lived boom in technology stocks-the
Indian market has not only underperformed other emerging markets,
but has also been among the worst in terms of returns to investors.
The irony is that this happened despite Indian companies faring
as well or as badly as their peers in other emerging markets: they
not only matched-up in terms of earnings but also dividend yields.
But investing in stocks, as even novices know,
is not just about dividend yields but also capital gains. The reason
India's stockmarket has been performing poorly is not because there
aren't good companies-there are many-but because average price-earning
multiples have been steadily declining and eating into any growth
in dividend yields. Naturally, this has made India a far less appealing
destination for foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who typically
weigh the odds of investing in any market with other similar alternatives.
A number of regional and global emerging markets funds thus felt
that it would be better to run a portfolio that underweighs the
Indian market.
But why are price-earning multiples (p-e ratios
in punters' lingo) low in the Indian market? Curiously, it has a
lot to do with things other than the stockmarket. The price-earning
multiple, a simple ratio of a stock's price to the company's earnings
per share, measures investors' perception about future earnings.
The higher the price earnings multiple, the greater the expectations
of investors about future earnings. Yet price earnings ratios are
influenced by subjective perceptions that go beyond the fundamentals
of a company to macroeconomic factors such as country risk and fundamentals
of the economy as a whole.
While the high price-earning multiple of America's
capital markets in the last decade was the envy of the world, it
was not only because of corporate America's stellar performance
but because the American economy enjoyed a prolonged period marked
by peace and prosperity. In the past four years, it has been quite
the contrary in the Indian context. To begin with, the Indian economy
didn't see spectacular growth during the period, but more important,
there were destabilising factors galore. A string of scams in the
financial market and, of course, the heightening tension in relations
with Pakistan. In the last five years, even the positive impact
of at least three good Union budgets-which usually contribute to
a 'feel good' mood on the bourses-was negated by what followed:
political instability, securities scams, communal riots, or war
clouds.
Still, some FIIs did bet on India, adopting
a 'bottom-up' approach to investing, focusing on companies, their
fundamentals and earnings, rather than a 'top-down', macroeconomic
focus. They argued that investing in India was all about a few good
companies. So larger issues like poor macro growth rates did not
matter. But soon many learnt the hard way that they actually did.
And that poor macroeconomic indices affect investor perceptions
about future corporate earnings.
To be sure though, it's not just event-risk
that has made India an underperforming emerging market. Many investors,
particularly foreign ones, are perturbed by rampant speculation
by local operators and the growing phenomenon of day trading-where
traders book profits daily-because of the volatility they cause.
Besides, doubts exist about India Inc.'s commitment to better corporate
governance and the recurrence of stock-related scams, which have
reached near-chronic proportions. It isn't uncommon to see fund
managers picking up stocks of second- or third-tier companies in
other emerging markets instead of those of a top-drawer Indian company
that is engaged in the same business.
The way out of this vortex is tough but not
impossible. A greater emphasis by business on corporate governance,
better regulation of the stockmarket and, crucially, the political
will to ensure peace and stability will go far in changing the perception
of foreign investors: from a discounted market to a premium one.
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