Debt was supposed
to be easy. Only, the recent volatility in the debt market makes
investing in the stockmarket look like a high school picnic. How
low will interest rates go? How long will they stay low? What do
we pick, short-term debt instruments, or long-term ones? No one
quite knows, although investment advisors manage some intelligent
guesses. Let's give you a tip: we spoke to the managers of some
debt funds (actually, the best-performing ones), and they have no
idea how interest rates will move. And let's give you some hope:
what's in store for you, in this article, is a strategy-one that
will earn you modest returns-for debt investing.
First, the basics: investing in debt is all
about taking a call on how interest rates will move. Smart investors
spread their investments over varying maturities--and you probably
do that too. Our recommendation: do so, but in a structured fashion.
This science of spreading your money over debt instruments of varying
maturities even comes with a fancy tag: laddering.
Laddering is simplicity itself. Step 1: Pick
an investment horizon, say five years. Step 2: Buy debt with
one, two, three, four, and five-year maturity periods. Step 3:
At the end of the first year, invest proceeds in five-year debt
at prevailing rates. Step 4: Repeat ad infinitum or
till you are sick of the whole process. The benefits: liquidity
and a stable return on investment over the long term.
Ladderising can ensure that you earn returns
that are higher than you would have had you picked a short-term
portfolio. It does mean your returns will be lower than those on
a long-term portfolio, but your risks are appreciably lower as well.
If interest rates fall, your fresh investments will be at a lower
rate of interest, but your past investments will earn higher returns.
And should interest rates rise, your new investments will be at
higher rates. Either way, your average return over the long-term
will move towards the market rate of return. "By spreading
your maturities, you'll be protected against interest rate fluctuations,"
explains Rajiv Bajaj, Managing Director, Bajaj Capital. "Your
income stream also smooths out over the investment period."
There's another benefit to laddering: it minimises
the role of the heart in making an investment decision (as long
as you keep the ladder going, that is). If you have a strong notion
which way interest rates are headed, you can actually work that
into the structure of your own personal ladder. For instance, if
you think they will dip, you may need to build a ladder with a long
tenure to lock into existing rates. And if you think rates have
been kept artificially low, keep the ladder small by investing in
debt that matures every quarter. Increase the length of the ladder
(you do this by investing in debt with a longer maturity period)
as the interest rate moves up. The only caveat: your ladder should
match your cash flow needs.
"Debt funds are far more diversified in
nature," says Binay Chandgotia, Manager, idbi Principal Mutual
Fund, who recommends a mix of liquid funds 91-3 month maturity),
short-term debt funds (2-6 months), income funds (1-4 years), and
gilt funds (2-4 years). "Retail investors can find it difficult
to construct a ladder given the complex risk-return equations."
You'd probably like us to end by giving you
a tip on how your ladder should look right now. Most experts believe
there is a short-term downward pressure on interest rates, but that
these will increase as the economy grows. Keep that ladder short
for now.
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