Everything depends on oil: But there are some smart investment options for those who keep a close watch

BACK OF THE BOOK

No investor should call himself 'serious' if he cannot tell you the latest oil prices wherever he might be: driving along Worli seaface, figuring out Lauryn Hill's notion of "everything", or even picturing those horse-headed things pumping oil out of wells in some desert. Because everything to do with making money now depends on oil. And that's a crisis.

Sounds reasonable? If so, you may well have read The Prize by Daniel Yergin, the Chief of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, and may even have an 'It's the Oil, Stupid!' bumper sticker on your own fuel-guzzler. If not, then read this book. You may not buy everything the husband-wife authors say, but remember: energy is critical to the planet's future, Warner is a brand-savvy publishing house, and co-author Stephen Leeb's Complete Investor newsletter is regarded rather well. Yet, perhaps the most compelling reason to expend energy on this book is that it was provoked by Arthur C. Clarke's Millennium thoughts on our species' survival.

In case you're wondering, this is not an exercise in alarmism. It is an investment guide. Oil prices, the authors warn, are set to overshoot $100 per barrel by 2010, and this variable has been the "single most important determinant of the world economy" for 30 years. The Leebs are good at plainspeak, even if they tend to oversimplify their case-charting all the oil shocks and gluts since 1960, when Saudi Arabia clasped four other energetic oil-pumpers to form OPEC. "Since 1973, the economy and stock market have danced to oil's tune," they say. And since 2000, OPEC has had a firmer-than-ever lever on prices.

THE OIL FACTOR By Stephen Leeb & Donna Leeb Warner Books PP: 218 Price: 1,122

In Market Timing For The Nineties, the Leebs offered five variables to be used as 'buy', 'hold' and 'sell' signals for stocks. In this book, they offer just one: the 'Oil Indicator'. If the year-on-year rise in oil prices is over 80 per cent, quit stocks. If under 20 per cent, get in. This strategy would have made a global investor heaps since 1973, and the book argues that results will get even better once the impending oil crisis hits. It forecasts volatile deflationary and inflationary phases, gigantic US government budgets, and recommends a portfolio strategy involving oil majors, gold, platinum, bonds, Berkshire Hathway and armament stocks.

But why should oil prices spurt into triple-digits? After all, despite the disastrous Iraq war, inflation-adjusted prices remain well below previous shock levels. And the oil trade is still in US dollars. Then there are those fuel-cell cars on their way, right?

Wrong. The Leebs dismiss talk of alternative energy for the foreseeable future as "hoopla", and contend that it's nigh impossible for oil supply to keep up with demand. For this, the authors offer a big reason that cannot easily be validated independently. The world has assumed as affirmative both the ability and willingness of Saudi Arabia, OPEC's swing producer, to pump more and more oil out. But there's sufficient circumstantial evidence to bet that the world's big oil hope has vastly exaggerated its reserves. And if you still won't chew your nails, how about an OPEC that says 'No'?

The Leebs apparently want rationalist reforms. Of course. That West Asia needs broader thinking on peace (and much else) is obvious. But why thrust unilateral reforms? Maybe, just maybe, everything-as in every thing-needs rethinking. The book's big flaw is that it's an American book rather than a global one. It doesn't really overcome-nor help overcome-the caricaturisations engraved in popular mindspace everywhere, and holds a somewhat plasticky view of non-American miseries; indeed, it's a relief that the Leebs don't try explaining the oil shocks in anything other than price terms. The Leebs would do well to grant space to others' responses to Clarke's not-so-idle posers.

R.K. SWAMI BBDO GUIDE TO URBAN MARKETS RK Swamy BBDO PP: 469 Price: 29,700* *Inclusive of accompanying CD

Put together by ad agency R.K. Swamy BBDO, this fat marketing companion is meant for any marketer scouring urban India to sell something. It offers purchasing power indicators for as many as 784 towns-with populations of over 50,000 in 21 states and three Union Territories, accounting for 77 per cent of India's population (having Jammu and Srinagar included from J&K would've been interesting, but that's alright). The guide offers three main indices to go by. There's Market Potential Value (MPV), the primary 'go for it' signal driving marketers to Greater Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata-which account for a quarter of all urban potential, by the look of it. There's the Market Intensity Index (MII), which is about concentrations of money and highlights places like Chandigarh. And then there's the Media Exposure Index (MEI), which throws up some surprises.

HOW CANON GOT ITS FLASH BACK By Nikkei John Wiley & Sons PP: 221 Price: 1,336

How would a book about a Japanese mega-corporation get written? Why, by consensus, of course. The Chairman and CEO agrees to provide material and share his management methods with a team from a newspaper. And then endorses the final output. "The authors do a great job of charting a course through the range of management reforms that the CEO has implemented and provide a wealth of information on the company's history and traditions... and also presents the bright future ahead for Canon," says Canon CEO Fujio Mitarai, before this book's preface. The "authors", of course, are content with having done a great job, and their anonymity. Their publisher, Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), gets the credit.

So even though there isn't much critical about Canon, the book is a detailed and informative account of the ups and downs of a company that started as a little optical shop and is now at the cutting edge of high-end digital cameras and flat panel display. The book describes how the founder, Takeshi Mitarai, an obstetrician, developed copiers-looking at US patents and finding ways around them. It also details the hardware and software inside each of the company's many gadgets, and the strategy that Canon has used to build its technology. It has interesting tidbits too. Canon started as a contract manufacturer for Hewlett-Packard before turning out its own brand. Canon files nearly as many patents as IBM.

All in all, the book is an authorised case study of Canon, and helps understand how a Japanese company works-from manufacturing and people policies to research management and so on. There is even a sample schedule of the CEO's day; the first meeting starts at 7:20 and the day ends at 10:30 pm with a client dinner.

-Vidya Viswanathan