A large and diverse group of Indians recently developed scenarios of what type of country India would become by the interplay of forces that were becoming evident in the country. The group included economists, bureaucrats, industrialists, political leaders, educationists and social workers. There were also students, village women and homeless street children. The many diverse perspectives produced rich insights into the aspirations and apprehensions of people. Four possible scenarios emerged, signs of which are already visible. Any one of these scenarios could overtake the others if the forces shaping it were to prevail. A young woman produced four pictures to describe these scenarios vividly. One of them was called "Buffaloes Wallowing". It showed a group of buffaloes wallowing together in a pond while a child waited on the side. The buffaloes represented leaders of various constituencies of Indian society. The child represented the young people of India. When one buffalo wants to move, others prevent it and so they all keep wallowing. But how long can the children wait?

India has the largest number of young people in the world today. There are only two countries in the world with a billion people-China and India. China curtailed the production of children with its 'one child' policy while population control sputtered in India. We have approximately 65 million children below 15 years of age, and as many as 400 million young people below the age of 23. These young people will, hopefully, join the ranks of working people in the next few years, thus creating a huge surge of productive activity, incomes and savings. This is the 'demographic dividend' on which the famous BRICs report bases its projection that India will be the third largest economy in 2050, behind China and the us, and way ahead of Japan and Germany. India's young people can be an asset to the global economy because while India's population will be getting younger over the coming decades, the population of all the developed countries, including those of Russia and China, will be getting older. The richer countries will face a shortage of working age people while India will have a surplus. Therefore, India can bring in more than $200 billion (Rs 8.8 lakh crore) of revenues every year from the richer countries and create 40 million additional jobs by providing a variety of services to the rest of the world.

Demographics are predictable. If enough children have not been born in rich countries and in China in the past decade, there is no way these countries can now increase the number of working-age people in the next 20 years, except through large immigration inflows, which they may not allow fearing social and political ramifications. India is bound to have enough working-age people because the children are already born. However, their future depends on the shape the Indian economy and society will take over the next few years. It depends on the decisions and actions of many leaders in India-in political parties, the bureaucracy, civil society and business. The consequences of not making the necessary changes are frightening. India could end up with a mass of unhealthy, under-employed and frustrated young people-a veritable cauldron for brewing violence.

The capabilities and spirit of our youth are critical determinants of India's future. The two vital ingredients of our youth's capabilities are their health and education. Millions of Indians have been lifted out of abject poverty. Now, while fewer Indians may die of starvation, it is shocking that as many as 45 per cent of India's children are malnourished. This makes them vulnerable to deteriorating health as they grow, which is a potential burden on society that is not factored into the calculations of the demographic dividend that are based purely on the number of people. The causes of malnourishment are multifarious, and rooted in systemic problems of food availability and low incomes compounded by traditions and habits. Quick fixes are not obvious. Therefore, many agencies will have to think together and understand what the root causes are and determine how they may be effectively addressed. Scenes of starvation may spur vigorous responses from society. But malnourishment is barely noticed. Some recent efforts to focus on this silent killer have shown that it is neither easy to get people's attention nor simple to get agencies to work together. But the longer we take, the greater the burden on our society in the decades ahead.

Fortunately, the attention of Indian society and its policy-makers has turned to the health of our education system. All parts of the system require urgent attention. The problems are relevance and efficiency. The content of education must be relevant to the future lives of the learners and must be delivered in a manner that fits the condition of their present lives. The standard classroom model of education is not satisfactory. It generally does not foster the desire to learn. And it does not create abilities to engage productively with the needs of the emerging economy. Moreover, it is very inefficient in the use of physical and human resources.

Alternative models are emerging that can provide cost-effective education and in ways that fit the lives of people. For example, the model for adult literacy developed by Tata Consultancy Services enables a grown woman to learn to read in 12 weeks in 30 to 40 convenient one-hour sessions, at a cost of only Rs 100! Other initiatives are also noteworthy-such as the UGC's scheme to add a vocational stream to arts, commerce and science courses through which India churns out over seven million 'general' degree holders every year. The addition of a second stream to their curriculum, enabling them to earn a second degree alongside, will improve their employability. However, the biggest obstacle to the introduction of such innovations is the rigidity in the policy framework that impedes the grant of more autonomy to educational institutions, changes in their curricula and willingness to allow the private sector to play a larger role. Therefore, the children wait for better education while the buffaloes wallow.

The most hopeful of the four scenarios of India that emerged from the process mentioned earlier was an evocative picture of "Fireflies Arising". In this scenario of India's development, women and youth had a large role in thousands of local initiatives all over the country. In this scenario, people were not waiting passively for the buffaloes to move, but had taken initiatives themselves. Young people were no longer a burden to be provided for, but were agents of change. The picture showed millions of fireflies, each carrying his or her own light, rising from the gloom and collectively brightening up the world.

Five major forces were analysed that together, can bring about this desirable scenario. Society and policy-makers must strengthen these forces:

• Proliferation of it, broadband and communications technologies to empower women and children in the rural and poor urban areas by providing them access to education and governance;

• Improvement of education content and information to make them relevant to the lives of people;

• Fostering local initiatives through changes in governance structures and support through micro-finance, trained volunteers, etc;

• Propagation of successful stories to provide hope and insights to others and thereby 'splash around' the benefits of development and growth; and

• Development of new models and skills of leadership (about which I will say more).

Almost every discussion about India's future turns to the need for a new breed of 'leaders'. And almost every discussion about education raises the issue of the values our children are imbibing. I believe that a society like ours that wishes to combine the power of market-based capitalism, which requires people to look after their own interests, with an inclusive model of development and growth, must foster two values in all its citizens. The first is respect for public property, not merely one's own, because Indians are notorious for dirtying public places while maintaining spotlessly clean homes. The second is to use the power of authority granted by society for the benefit of the weak rather than for the aggrandisement of oneself and one's cronies. We need many more role models who practice these values and, thus, teach children, rather than by preaching in classrooms and seminars.

The India scenarios exercise also addressed these issues. It analysed different role models of leaders-who they are and what they do-before our youth. One model is a person who has a high position and title and is called a 'leader' even if he or she does not do anything to improve our society. This was the model within the scenario of "Buffaloes Wallowing". Another model, embedded in another scenario with a picture of a strutting peacock, is a person with wealth. This model is coming into greater prominence in India with wealthy people celebrated in the media. A third model, in another scenario, is a person who is feared because he has the power to hurt, like some of our less savoury political 'leaders'.

However, it is the fourth type of leader that we need. These are people who care for a cause and not merely their own benefits. They take the initiative to act and do not wait around to be told to do something. They have open minds and learn the ideas that will help them attain their goals. They collaborate with others knowing that they do not themselves have all the resources and authority required to obtain their goals. Thus, they encourage others to follow them towards a shared goal. These are the 'fireflies' that Indian youth must be for India to emerge as the great country that the vast number of its young people can make it.