Nobody,
but nobody, pushes India around. On this, there's a consensus
amongst citizens of this country, be they conservative or liberal
or any admixture of the two. Thank goodness. That's a source of
comfort, as India begins addressing a need that has been obvious
for quite some time: the need for a strategy to handle America.
Strategy is the appropriate word. Even India's
first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru would have agreed, convinced
as he was that foreign policy must be derived from economic strategy
(and is not some wishy-washy matter of whim). If he was a practical
man of his times, so is current Prime Minister Manmohan Singh,
a key player in one of India's biggest policy shifts. With values
and goals held constant, India has altered the means to reach
those goals by granting the market a lead role in the allocation
of resources. This, let's be clear, had to do with a fresh evaluation
of the merit in market forces, as evidence emerged, as opposed
to central planning. India, mind you, did not scamper in panic
to the winning side of the Cold War, as American triumphalists
often assume. It was a sovereign decision based on a rethink,
not fear. India, remember, was non-aligned. And open to diverse
schools of thought.
Some 15 years on, India has grown in confidence.
The country's economic growth is within striking range of the
desired rate, despite low levels of foreign investment, and is
being watched as closely as China-even as the stakes soar for
leadership of the 21st century. What's more, India is newly armed
with nukes, and America has started giving shape to a new strategic
partnership with a country it once had little time for. The chief
watchdog's chief diplomat, Condoleezza Rice, has been on a visit
too. Instead of tactless GDP comparisons with Spain, or subjecting
officials to an inquisition, she has taken care to hold India's
progress in appropriate esteem, and has even held out the possibility
of enhanced technology transfers. So far, so sweet of her. Mutual
ties have never been better.
But America also seems intent on pushing
India to another decision fork of sorts. Framed one way or another,
Rice appears to be offering a binary choice, and the deal comes
down to this: 'either Iran's piped-in gas or America's fighter
jets'. Choose.
In its choice of principle, India needn't
bat an eyelid. It's easily the principle of economic sovereignty;
the one that says India's future shall be determined by its own
citizens. So if the energy security of a pipeline, given the acute
need for cheap gas, is worth more than the additional defence
security of those jet fighters, given the existence of a nuclear
deterrent, it makes more sense to go for the pipeline.
That decision is indeed a matter of Indian
sovereignty, and one of bigger consequence than the fracas over
who America keeps off its territory, where it spots "severe
violations of religious freedom", or-heck-what its intelligentsia
makes of a speech made in Goa. Not to say it doesn't grate. It
does, as should any barbed hint of state hypocrisy (that's why
the howls of protest).
Talking tough is all very good. But it is
still no replacement for an external strategy to secure India's
well-being in the long-term. Rice's either-or offer, to return
to the issue, cannot be viewed in isolation of global geopolitics
and America's own fears of possible threats-the known, mapped
ones-to its power. And power it is. So the risk of American ire
must also enter the calculations. This is not a watchdog that
keeps its growls and snarls to itself.
What would be an optimal way out?
If India makes its market too big for investors
to resist, the country could operate with even more degrees of
freedom. So that's important as far as the long-term aims of domestic
policies go.
For now, the best course might be to go ahead
with the original energy plans, shrug off the possibility of lost
fighter jets, and then make up for such bad behaviour by offering
America a sweetened deal of its own. It's fuzzy, but one it may
still want to consider.
What would America rather have: a slick series
of shot-from-the-hip ventures hoping to gush forth quickie dividends?
Or a stable stake in the emergence of a market that insists on
thriving on liberty-and could talk the rest into it too? Choose.
Difficult, is it not?
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