Market
On Steroids
The price of growing too much, too fast, may
come back to haunt companies in India's booming telecom market.
A little over
a decade ago, Bharti Enterprises, then a small Delhi-based manufacturer
of telephone instruments, wanted to enter the mobile telephony
business for which the government was vending licences. It hired
a city-based consulting firm to assess the market size; the firm
duly presented its report; Delhi, it said, would have 5,000 people,
at the most, who would subscribe to a mobile telephony service.
Bharti's CEO Sunil Mittal ignored the report. Today, Bharti Tele-Ventures,
an offshoot of Bharti Enterprises, has 1.65 million subscribers
on its rolls in Delhi alone and boasts a one-fifth share of India's
54-million mobile telephony market.
Ten years ago, India had just 9.8 million
telephone lines, all fixed. Today, it has 100 million connections,
of which 54 million are mobile. That's almost a 900 per cent increase
in tele-density, even after accounting for the increase in the
country's population in this period. Much of the growth has happened
in the past two years: in 2003, there were 13 million mobile telephony
connections and 41 million fixed ones in India. Between 1997 and
2003, even as telcos focussed on mobile telephony lobbied to move
from an unviable licence-fee regime to a revenue-sharing one,
and struggled with operational issues that had left tariffs as
high as Rs 16 a minute, those in the fixed-telephony business-this
was and is dominated by state owned monoliths Bharat Sanchar Nigam
Limited (BSNL), which operates across India with the exception
of Delhi and Mumbai, and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL),
which operates in those two cities-added almost 27 million connections,
stringing more copper in the intervening six years than anyone
had since the first telephone was installed in India in 1875.
The economic changes wrought six years earlier were clearly resulting
in an increase in purchasing power and in industrial activity,
both factors that contribute to a demand for telephone services.
By 2003, however, the cost of adding a mobile
connection was a fraction, roughly one-fifth or one-tenth in some
cases, that of adding a fixed one. Between April 2003 and April
2005, mobile telephony companies added 41 million connections
to its base while fixed telephony ones did just 4.5 million. Reliance
Infocomm entered the market with relatively new CDMA technology
(an alternative to European GSM standards, which operators like
Bharti and Hutch use) and offered the cheapest tariffs, as low
as Rs 0.40 a minute. The government on its part made licensing
technology-neutral; anyone with a unified service licence, it
said, could offer any telecom service. Since then, tariffs have
dropped even further; today, an individual can 'go mobile', industry
parlance for buying a phone and subscribing to the service, for
as less as Rs 1,500. Ten years ago, that would have been Rs 30,000.
"We took only nine years to reach our first 50 million (subscribers),
while China took 17 years," points out Rajan Mehta, Vice
President, Nortel, which sells network equipment to mobile operators.
Today, China has 340 million mobile telephone customers; Mehta's
comment implies that India, too, could be eyeing a similar number
in the not-too-distant future.
That would help. India's Minister in charge
of it and Communications, Dayanidhi Maran, a 39-year-old Harvard-educated
businessman who ran a large cable television operation before
being elected to India's Parliament, believes there is no reason
why the country should not have 250 million phone connections
by 2007 (it has a little over a 100 million now). Assuming his
point of reference to be March of that year (Indian companies
typically close their books of account on the last day of that
month), that would give the country's telcos 22 months to achieve
the target. And if it is December of the year, it would give them
31. The corresponding tele-density statistic is 22 per cent and
a senior executive with a telco says it is achievable if "the
regulatory and policy regime is conducive". His reference
is to issues related to interconnectivity, spectrum allocation,
and migration to 3g (third generation, the next level of telecom
networks that offer high-speed connectivity) services.
A major portion of the 100-150 (the lower
band is probably what will be achieved) million connections that
will be added will be mobile telephony ones (they cost less, and
can be added quickly). That would mean the mobile telephony industry
that grew by 100 per cent every year for the past two, will have
to do so for the next two as well. Circa May 2005, that looks
difficult: in the first four months of the year the country's
mobile telephony companies have added only 5.61 million subscribers.
One reason for that is the seasonality of the business: this is
the time telcos drop defaulting customers from their rolls; it
has also traditionally been the time when customers seem to go
slow. Last year, for instance, the companies added 6.59 million
subscribers in this period (they did 19.62 million in the whole
year).
The phenomenon of defaults is fairly common
in the Indian telecommunication industry. Telcos begin their year
conservatively, worried that the number of defaults on their rolls
(read bad debt) will affect their financial statements; then,
as the year goes on, adding subscribers becomes a keeping up with
the Joneses kind of thing; and some telcos even keep the names
of customers who have moved on to other networks for three to
six months before knocking them off their rolls. The result, often
enough, is not pleasant: in March this year Reliance Infocomm
knocked 0.98 million customers, 10 per cent of its subscriber
base, off its rolls. All along, rival telcos had insisted that
the company's meteoric growth was not backed by prudent practices
and that defaults made up around 30 per cent of its subscription
base. Reliance Infocomm, in turn, had insisted that its proportion
of defaults, at 3-4 per cent, was no different from the industry
average.
Another reason is the fact that the penetration
of mobile telephony is already high in the metros and large cities;
the growth will therefore have to come from smaller cities, even
rural communities. To successfully break into this market, telcos
will have to improve reach and distribution, and reduce operational
costs (only then will they be able to offer services at a price
that the rural or value-conscious urban customer finds appealing).
They will also have to increasingly go in for bundling, offering
a handset and a connection at an attractive price, often subsidising
the cost of the first with an eye on future earnings. Some telcos
could choose to focus exclusively on small cities and rural areas
offering frills-free services at a low cost. Others may evolve
hybrid business models that do this at one extremity, and live
off the cream at the other by offering premium value-added services
(music downloads, for instance, or multi-player gaming, or news
and stock tickers, even data services).
There is another way by which the target
can be achieved and Manoj Kohli, President (Mobility), Bharti
Tele-Ventures is quick to point this out. "If the economy
grows by 7-8 per cent instead of the existing 6-7 per cent, then
the growth in telecom will be far more than we have experienced."
That, despite recent research that proves the existence of a relationship
between increased tele-density and economic growth in developing
countries-the study was conducted by a London Business School
professor, Leonard Waverman, and sponsored by Vodafone-is something
outside the control of telcos.
Even if they avoid the defaults-trap, most
Indian telcos will be hard-pressed to make profits and the ones
that are already profitable (like Bharti Tele-Ventures, which
returned profits of Rs 1,439 crore on revenues of Rs 8,035 crore
in 2004-05) hard-pressed to keep profit margins at current levels
as they grow. This won't be because of regulatory interference:
in well-regulated markets, the regulator keeps an eye on the financial
performance of telcos; unnatural profits, such regulators believe,
is sign of either a monopoly or inadequate service levels. It
will be because the telcos will be operating in a cost-conscious
market that is highly competitive and the only way by which they
can grow (and help India reach that magical 250 million number)
is by taking a hit, or two. The Indian telecom market will no
doubt boom over the next few years, but telcos operating in it
will not be making money in a hurry.
The Limits To Growth
Inadequate regulation and a short-sighted
spectrum policy could hamstring telcos.
|
Communications Minister Dayanidhi Maran:
Policy, please
|
If India is poised at the brink
of a telecom revolution, blame the legal process. That's right:
the shining example that is, of the government's efforts at deregulation
and privatisation would have never been had various interested
parties not taken the government/the regulator/other interested
parties to court. Litigation and arbitration have been, directly
or indirectly, behind the two most significant developments in
Indian telecom, the New Telecom Policy of 1999 (NTP '99) that
allowed cellular service providers to move from a fixed licence
regime to a revenue sharing one, and the move to a unified licence
regime in 2003 that effectively allowed any telco in possession
of one to provide any service on any technology platform. Since
then, the Indian telecom market has grown, and grown. Now, with
over 100 million subscribers, the challenges facing telcos that
operate in the country are different (for instance, how to profitably
target low-paying rural customers). And if they are to address
them successfully, the regulatory regime would have to be fair.
THE FUTURE IS WIRELESS |
Numbers alone-India
added 19.6 million mobile telephony connections in 2004 and
2.67 million fixed telephony ones; in April 2005 the corresponding
numbers were 1.44 million and 0.59 million-indicate that the
future will increasingly be wireless. A report by CRIS INFAC,
a division of credit rating firm CRISIL, says that the profitability
of fixed telephony companies has been declining due to a drop
in long-distance telephony tariffs, competition from mobile
telephony companies, and a lower rate of growth (in subscribers).
"It is profitable to provide wireline services if the
average revenue per user (ARPU) is between Rs 1,000 and Rs
1,200," the report goes on to say. With ARPUs currently
in the Rs 400-500 range, it shouldn't surprise anyone that
only those companies confident of getting wireline customers
to subscribe to broadband services are investing in fixed
telephony, and only in those areas. Over the next five years,
over 90 per cent of all connections added will be mobile. |
That it isn't at this point in time, with the government's own
decisions on the policy front seeming to favour the companies
it owns, BSNL and MTNL (the existing access deficit charge, ADC,
regime that levies a sort of duty on all calls terminating in
a fixed telephony network is heavily skewed in favour of BSNL
and MTNL). To make matters worse, the regulator Telecom Regulatory
Authority of India (TRAI), most operators complain, seems predisposed
towards Reliance Infocomm; TRAI's recommendation on the allocation
of spectrum for 3G services (it gives Reliance Infocomm an unfair
advantage by allocating additional spectrum in the 800-mhz band
to it and to Tata Teleservices, the other CDMA player) is, these
operators claim, a case in point. Then, there is the thing about
the government dragging its feet over the spectrum policy-it was
due around the time this magazine went to press as indeed it has
been for some time now. And so, India's telcos labour on, with
inadequate spectrum at their disposal, and paying both an ADC
and a contribution to the USO fund (universal service obligation,
and this money is to be used to help the cause of rural telephony).
The Lite Option
A one-size-fits-all strategy will not help
telcos turn profits.
|
|
Sunil Mittal's Bharti Tele-Ventures
will likely be one of the two or three large integrated
telcos operating in India by the turn of the decade
|
BSNL already has a commanding
presence in fixed telephony. Now Chairman and Managing Director
A.K. Sinha wants to do the same in mobile telephony |
This, say executives at telcos,
analysts and consultants (and there is some degree of unanimity
in what they say), is how the Indian telecommunications market
will look circa 2007 or 2008: five or six pan-Indian players with
more or less the same number of subscribers (25-30 million; except
BSNL, which everyone says will have more; the state-owned firm
already boasts 35 million fixed telephony subscribers and hopes
to have 40 million mobile telephony ones on its rolls by 2007),
and a high degree of uncertainty over revenues and profits. "Operators
will have a large subscriber base, but the revenues and profitability
are a big question mark," says Prashant Singhal, Director,
Ernst & Young. Falling ARPUs (average revenue per user) are
behind this. Currently, ARPUs for most telcos are around Rs 400,
but the number is expected to come down to between Rs 120 and
Rs 175 very soon. To grow, telcos will have to tap smaller cities
and rural areas; and customers in these regions are unlikely to
spend as much on telephony as their counterparts in large cities.
|
Hutch (CEO Asim Ghosh seen
above) is a pure-play mobile telephony firm that has consistently
and consciously focussed on high-end and enterprise customers
|
Lower ARPUs will necessarily entail a higher payback time on
capital expenditure. And the only way telcos can earn profits
is by differentiating their offerings. There will be two or three
large integrated players that offer a complete bouquet of services:
fixed-line, mobile, broadband, value-added, the works. The ones
that look most likely to occupy this strata are Bharti Tele-Ventures,
BSNL and Reliance Infocomm. Then, there will be those telcos who
focus exclusively on pre-paid services. This will be a business
driven purely by volumes. "Like in the aviation industry,
there is scope for one or two Air Deccans whose business model
is low cost," says Singhal, referring to the company that
launched India's first successful low-cost airline. Sri Lanka's
Celltel, a company owned by Luxembourg's Millicom, is one such.
It services half-a-million customers, 98 per cent of them through
the pre-paid route, has 170 employees on its rolls and boasts
a net profit margin of 30 per cent.
Today, around 80 per cent of India's 54-million mobile telephony
customers are those who use pre-paid cards (they contribute over
half the revenue of telcos). But the remaining 20 per cent post-paid
customers account for a higher proportion of overheads, 80 per
cent according to analyst estimates. Then there is the issue of
defaults (bad debts), which is purely a post-paid phenomenon.
A telco that shifts its focus entirely to pre-paid will save on
these costs.
If recent campaigns of the leading telcos are any indication,
there is a clear shift towards pre-paid. The focus of Bharti's
post-paid services is on enterprise customers; for the mass market
it is going the pre-paid way. Tata Teleservices' True Paid service
is focussed on the pre-paid segment as well. And Reliance Infocomm
is a pioneer of sorts in the pre-paid category; its Monsoon Hungama
promotion that lowered entry cost to Rs 500 (for a phone and a
connection) helped it enrol 10 million subscribers in two years.
That 10 per cent of this defaulted is a different matter.
VALUE-ADDED SERVICES |
BROADBAND |
Most
new telecom networks that will roll out will be third generation
(3g) ones that can carry high-bandwidth data such as streaming
audio and video. Ergo, the current definition of value-added
services (VAS)-it is synonymous with SMS, smart messaging
service, now-will itself change in the near future. Music
downloads (largely tunes that people can hear when they call
you, instead of the boring ring-ring) already account for
Rs 50 crore and are almost entirely legal, a rarity in the
Rs 1,000-crore music industry that is plagued by piracy. Things
look even better on the gaming front. Already, around 11 million
of India's 54 million mobile telephony subscribers have phones
equipped for some level of gaming. By 2009, say estimates
by some analysts, gaming on mobile phones could be a Rs 1,500-crore
market. |
Although
India has been slow to adopt broadband, it is lucky in that
it can now choose between fixed-line and wireless broadband.
On a recent visit to India, Hakan Eriksson, CTO, Ericsson,
said that the wireless broadband market would grow faster
than the fixed-line one since it could be deployed faster
and cost less to maintain. India's broadband policy mandates
a minimum data connection speed of 256 kbps (fast enough,
but not really broadband according to the standards set in
some countries). Today, everyone from Bharti Tele-Ventures
to BSNL to MTNL to Tata Indicom has launched offerings that
follow this mandate. And contrary to Eriksson's opinion, much
of the growth will come, at least in the initial years, from
fixed-line offerings. Broadband is the perfect value-add for
fixed-line telephony companies seeking to offset the high
initial cost of the business. |
Hutch is a pure-play mobile telephony company that has taken
the other route (it is hoping to differentiate its services and
focus on high-value customers). It operates only in 13 of the
country's 23 circles, provides a clutch of value-added services,
and boasts an ARPU of around Rs 500. Over the next two years,
other models will emerge. Some telcos could just focus on rural
customers with frills-free services; others could target just
one geographical area; still others could actually be mobile virtual
network operators (MVNOs) and focus on branding and marketing
(UK's Virgin has done this successfully in some markets); and
a few could be content to be back-end providers of bandwidth and
network management services to such MVNOs. Most telcos, however,
will opt for hybrid models. Reliance Infocomm, for instance, targets
the low-end with its pre-paid offerings, but is hoping value-added
offerings such as music and movie-clip downloads, gaming, and
broadband-on-mobile connectivity will help it make a dent in the
high-end market. "We are very bullish on data traffic,"
says Mahesh Prasad, President (Applications, Solutions and Content),
Reliance Infocomm. "The volume of data traffic has already
overtaken that of voice traffic on wire-line networks." Today,
data traffic (including smart messaging service, SMS) contributes
10 per cent to the revenues of Indian telcos and if Prasad is
to be believed, this proportion could soon touch 25 per cent.
By 2007, a telco's success won't just be a function of its subscription
base. It will depend equally on its business model.
The Foreign Hand
Apart from STT, TMI, SingTel and Hutch, no
global telco has a presence in India. They are interested.
VODAFONE
UK
152 million subscribers
Operates in 26 countries
Revenues of over $62 billion (Rs 2,79,000 crore) in 2004
The India connection: Exited in 2003 after selling
its stake in RPG cellular (it provided mobile telephony services
in Chennai) to Sterling Infotech (Aircel); looking to re-enter
through an acquisition; CEO Arun Sarin is of Indian origin.
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM
Germany
77.4 million subscribers
Operates in over 50 countries
Revenues of $73 billion (Rs 3,28,500 crore) in 2004-05
The India connection: Already present through its
information and communication technology division T-Systems
that has a development centre in Pune; may be looking at
emerging markets such as India for an entry into services.
NTT DOCOMO
Japan
50 million subscribers
Operates in nine countries
Revenues of $45 billion (Rs 1,98,000 crore) in 2004-05
The India connection: The aggressive Japanese firm,
analysts say, is looking at India for a possible acquisition.
AFK SISTEMA
Russia
40.6 million subscribers
Operates largely in Russia
Revenues of $3.9 billion (Rs 17,160 crore) in 2004 (for
the Group's telecom flagship company MTS)
The India connection: Its $450 million (Rs 1,980
crore) deal to acquire Aircel may have hit a financial roadblock
but the head of its telecom arm Vladimir Lagutin recently
told a Russian business daily that the company is still
looking to enter the Indian market.
ORASCOM
Egypt
15 million subscribers
Operates in eight countries including
Pakistan, Bangladesh and Italy apart from Egypt
Revenues of $2 billion (Rs 8,800 crore) in 2004
The India connection: CEO Naguib Sawiris has an eye
on all happening telecom markets; recently, he was part
of a consortium that included Wilbur Ross Jr (the man who
sold ISG to L.N. Mittal last year) that bid $15.6 billion
(Rs 68,640 crore) to acquire Italy's third largest telco
Wind. The man is said to be keen on India too.
ALPHA TELECOM
UK
28 million subscribers across
Europe and Australia
Operates in 24 countries
Revenues of $5.9 billion (Rs 25,960 crore) in 2004
The India connection: Nothing tangible yet, but India
is in the company's geographical radar falling as it does,
between Europe and Australia.
CHINA TELECOM
China
187 million subscribers
Operates only in China
Revenues of $19.5 billion (Rs 85,800 crore) in 2004
The India connection: The buzz in telecom industry
circles is that China's biggest fixed-line telco is looking
at the Indian market.
|
If the buzz in India's telecom industry
is any indication, and if investment bankers are to be believed,
the telecom sector in the country is set to enter a period that
will see global private equity majors and multinational telcos
striving to establish a presence, the first by acquiring stakes
in Indian telcos, and the second by either acquiring Indian telcos
whole or in part, or starting operations afresh. The names being
thrown around include Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DoCoMo,
afk Sistema of Russia, Alpha Telecom of the uk, Egypt's Orascom,
and China Telecom. Nor are the private equity firms being spoken
of any less celebrated. Carlyle is one. Goldman Sachs-its reps
were in India in April scouting for a deal-is another. "I
have been meeting a number of international investors and everyone
is looking at India," says Vikram Mehmi, CEO, Idea Cellular,
whose firm is already 47.7 per cent owned by foreign investors,
Singapore Technologies Telemedia (STT) and Telecom Malyasia International
(TMI). The only other telcos with a significant foreign stake
are Hutch (Hutchison Whampoa owns 42.34 per cent) and Bharti (SingTel
owns 27 per cent and private equity firm Warburg Pincus 5.74 per
cent).
The trigger for this interest is the government's decision,
in February 2005, to raise the ceiling on foreign direct investment
in telcos from 49 per cent to 74 per cent (since 1991, it has
been 100 per cent in firms manufacturing telecom equipment). But
why would multinational telcos and private equity firms be interested
in India? Well, for starters, India is the second-fastest-growing
mobile market in the world (adding 1.5-2 million subscribers every
month; the fastest-growing is China, which adds 4.5 million on
a larger base). Then, although India is the fifth-largest market
in the world for mobile telephony services (with 54 million subscribers)
currently, it will soon be the second-largest (with 200 million
subscribers), just behind China, which boasts 340 million mobile
customers. The average revenue per user (ARPU) may be declining,
but the market remains attractive from the growth and volumes
point of view. Finally, Indian telcos need money to roll out fresh
telecom networks (all told, they may need to invest Rs 70,000
crore, over $15 billion within the next two years). "I am
not sure banks can fund this much," says Idea's Mehmi. With
internal accruals barely adequate to fund operating expenses,
Indian telcos will have to try and raise at least half this amount
by selling stake to multinational telcos, financial investors
and the investing public (through initial public offerings).
It will be a second coming for most multinational telcos. Most
entered India in the early 1990s and exited it in the latter half
of the decade, sure that a stifling regulatory environment would
kill the market. Bell South, Swisscom, Millicom, Vodafone, BT,
Telecom Italia, the list of exits is a veritable who's who of
telecom. "They all misjudged the market and ran," says
T.V. Ramachandran, Director General, Cellular Operators Association
of India.
THE 74 PER CENT EFFECT |
|
Idea's Mehmi: 74 per cent is
good, but it is still on paper |
The government has announced
its decision to increase the ceiling on FDI in telcos from
49 per cent to 74 per cent, but the money isn't pouring
in. For instance, the STT-TMI combine's plans to invest
$390 million (Rs 1,716 crore) in Idea Cellular has been
stuck because of the rider that no company can hold more
than 10 per cent stake in two companies operating in the
same circle. Temasek owns 100 per cent of STT and holds
a 65 per cent stake in SingTel that, in turn, has a 27 per
cent stake in Bharti Tele-Ventures. And Bharti and Idea
compete in eight circles. What will also stand in the way
of investments are the stiff riders the government has proposed
to placate its political bedfellows, the communist parties.
One involves barring remote access to foreign equipment
manufacturers for any maintenance/repair of networks; another
insists that the chairman, CEO, CTO, MD and CFO of the telco
should be resident Indians. Not surprisingly, the new policy
is yet to be notified although it was announced three months
ago.
|
SELLING OUT? |
|
|
Spice's Modi (top) and BPL's Chandrasekhar:
Prime targets |
The telecom sector is already
talking of two mega deals, one involving BPL Mobile, the
other, Spice Telecom. With the dispute between patriarch
T.P.G. Nambiar and his son-in-law Rajiv Chandrasekhar over
the ownership of BPL's telecom businesses getting a temporary
reprieve (a court recently rejected Nambiar's plea against
any sell-off in the telecom businesses), a cash-strapped
Chandrasekhar is close to inking a deal with a "long-term
strategic investor". He is said to be in discussions
with Essar, STT, Vodafone and Sistema to offload up to a
49 per cent stake in the holding company, BPL Cellular Holdings
or in its two subsidiaries, BPL Mobile Communications and
BPL Mobile Cellular. To clear the way, Chandrasekhar is
believed to be talking to his estranged foreign shareholders-Actis,
AIG, Nomura-TVG and ADB-for buying out their stake and in
turn sell them off to the "strategic investor".
In Spice Telecom, investment banking sources say, Essar
is interested in buying out the stake of foreign partners
Distacom, AIG and Darby. The B.K. Modi Group, the Indian
partner of Spice, has termed the Essar move a hostile bid,
and has procured a stay from the Delhi High Court. Expect
some high-octane drama surrounding telecom deals in the
coming days.
|
Today, there are two routes open to foreign telcos looking to
enter the market. One, they can acquire operators who are willing
to sell out and then build a national presence gradually. Two,
they can apply for fresh licences. The problem with the second
approach is that there isn't too much spectrum going. That, though,
hasn't stopped Atlas Interactive, a mid-sized international telco
that offers mobile telephony services in countries like Romania,
from applying for a licence for 12 circles. "We would be
focussed on offering 3g services and not plain vanilla voice services,"
says Abhishek Verma, the company's Chairman.
Companies like Vodafone, however, would rather not comment.
"We will not be able to comment on the Indian market. But
what I can say is that our expansion is currently focussed on
Eastern and Central European markets," says Ben Padovan,
a spokesperson for the company. Only in March Vodafone shelled
out $4.4 billion (Rs 19,360 crore) to buy out mobile telephony
companies in Romania and the Czech Republic. India's turn will
surely come.
Dog-fight Ahead
Equipment vendors are preparing to slug it
out.
|
Nokia CEO Jorma Ollila
(right) and the company's entire board were in India again
in early May, just another indication of the country's importance
|
The media-brouhaha over Air-India's
$6.9-billion (Rs 30,360-crore) deal with Boeing, and subsequent
charges by Airbus that all wasn't kosher with the selection process,
must have made some players in India's telecom markets smile.
In the next 22 to 31 months, Indian telcos will burn around Rs
70,000 crore on network equipment alone. A substantial chunk of
this spending will be done by state-owned monoliths BSNL and MTNL;
the first recently announced that it would soon invite tenders
for 40 million lines, mostly for 3g networks and the second has
already asked for bids for four million 3g lines. Together, that's
business worth Rs 20,000 crore and as Vineet Nigam, an analyst
who tracks the telecom business at credit rating firm ICRA sees
it, "is just the kind of news equipment vendors have been
waiting to hear".
|
Ericsson (CEO Carl-Henric
Svanberg is seen at right) started manufacturing some network
equipment in its plant in Jaipur in March 2005
|
With the Chinese telecom frenzy cooling off (the country has
340 million mobile and 316 million fixed telephony connections),
India could well be the market to be for vendors such as Ericsson,
Nokia, Siemens, Alcatel, Lucent, Motorola, Huawei and ZTE. The
competition promises to be intense and companies will have to
indulge in some lobbying (especially for contracts from the state-owned
firms), play the price card-competitors allege that the two Chinese
companies Huawei and ZTE have already won some orders from BSNL
by slashing prices to the bone-and try and develop unique products
for the Indian market. C.S. Rao, the CEO of Lucent Technologies
India, the market leader in the CDMA space on the strength of
its deal with Reliance Infocomm, insists that the company will
do everything it can "to sustain our share at least 50 per
cent in the face of increasing competition that these figures
will provoke".
The price factor will become even more important as telcos expand
in smaller cities and rural areas where they need to maintain
low cost of operations should they wish to be profitable. Nortel,
says Rajan Mehta, a vice president with the company, is developing
low-cost networks for rural areas in countries such as India.
"India is the key battleground for equipment- and service-providers
to prove that they can manufacture low-cost equipment," adds
Sanjay Gopal, Partner, Accenture, a consulting firm. Motorola,
for instance, is working on solutions that use low-capacity, low-cost
switches. "The operating expenses for service providers will
be more in the hinterland and we have to provide them with cost-effective
solutions," explains Parmindra Kwatra, Country Head and Director
of the company's infrastructure business.
VENDOR-VECTOR
Most equipment-makers are in overdrive. |
Nortel: Has won an
order for seven million lines from BSNL; also outsources
development of telecom software to Indian vendors such as
TCS and Infosys.
Nokia: Investing Rs
625 crore in a handset manufacturing facility at Chennai.
Motorola: Working on
alternative cost-effective network solutions for the semi-urban
and rural markets.
LG: Has a manufacturing
facility in Pune that makes handsets; will look at developing
colour and camera phones for the market.
Ericsson: Intends to
invest $50 million (Rs 220 crore) over the next three years.
Working on its 3G-enabled network and actively talking to
most players for network management arrangements such as
the one it has with Bharti.
Alcatel: Bagged a contract
to deploy BSNL's intelligent network platform, entailing
manufacture of 30 million cards to be used for mobile, landline
and internet.
Siemens: Active in the
GSM area and is likely to announce its decision to invest
in a manufacturing plant soon.
ZTE: The Chinese firm's
plant in Manesar near Delhi will manufacture network equipment
and handsets for GSM, CDMA and DSL markets. Is also entering
broadband and TV-over-IP markets through an alliance with
Atlas Interactive.
Huawei Technologies:
Another Chinese firm, this one has an R&D centre in
Bangalore where it is developing, among other things, solutions
for 3G systems. Has won a $70-million (Rs 308-crore) contract
from HFCL Infotel recently.
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THE ANCILLARY BOOM |
Rs 1,20,000 crore is a lot
of money. It is also the kind of money that will result
in a boom in ancillary industries that feed off telcos.
According to a report put out by Ovum, a London-based consulting
firm, the Indian mobile telephony sector contributes 1 per
cent to India's GDP, provides 3.6 million jobs (170,000
of these are direct), and buys support services that generate
another million jobs. Over the next two years the shopping
list of a telco would read thus: nuts, bolts, switches,
network equipment, handsets, specialised cables, computers,
civil engineering and construction services, software, network
management services, and call centres. "Operators are
going to farm out non-core operations," says S.C. Khanna,
Secretary General, Association of Unified Telecom Service
Providers of India, commenting on an emerging trend that
involves outsourcing everything from network management
to IT infrastructure. One lucrative area, especially in
a 3G environment, is the development of content and applications.
The popularity of Japan's NTT DoCoMo comes partly from this
and closer home, Reliance Infocomm has sought to create
a forum, Dhirubhai Ambani Developer Programme (DADP), to
develop content and applications for its R World services
with some degree of success. Already, 11,000 developers
(including 900 corporates) are part of the programme and
Mahesh Prasad, President, Applications, Solutions and Content,
Reliance Infocomm claims that "35 per cent of our content
comes from DADP". Expect more such.
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MADE IN INDIA |
India isn't just the fifth-largest
market for telecom equipment and services, it is also the
fastest growing. Expectedly, everyone wants a piece of the
action, and if that involves investing in a domestic manufacturing
facility, it is a small price to pay. Those companies that
are still not convinced about the viability of an India-based
manufacturing operation may well be persuaded by the government's
proposal to make a local manufacturing facility a pre-requisite
for any company wishing to sell equipment to state-owned
firms BSNL and MTNL. China, for instance, has just such
a provision; 60 per cent of all telecom equipment sold anywhere
in the world is made in China.
Ericsson and Alcatel already have manufacturing facilities
in India. "A manufacturing facility allows us to be
more responsive to customer needs," says P. Balaji,
Vice President, Marketing and Technical Solutions, Ericsson.
"It also reduces inventory." Then, there's the
simple thing about the market finally being big enough to
justify a manufacturing operation. The decision of Nokia
to invest Rs 625 crore in a handset manufacturing plant
near Chennai was driven by such considerations (the first
phones will roll off the line in the first half of 2006).
As was the decision of Elcoteq Network Corporation, which
makes phones and phone components for Sony Ericsson, Siemens,
and Nokia, to invest between $50 million and $100 million
(Rs 220 crore and Rs 440 crore) in a manufacturing facility
near Bangalore. Korean electronics major LG already makes
phones in its Pune facility and another Korean major Hyundai
is investing $50 million in a handset factory. Now, that's
a boom.
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With telcos accounting for 30 per cent of all handsets sold
(they buy them from manufacturers and bundle them along with a
connection for sale to customers), there will be significant activity
on the handset front as well. Manufacturers will strive to strike
deals with operators offering substantial discounts, even co-branded
phones. The emphasis on low-cost products, both phones and equipment,
is one reason why vendors are investing in local manufacturing
facilities. The great Indian telecom revolution may yet help the
country become a hardware-manufacturing powerhouse. That would
be an adventitious benefit.
The Unconnected Hinterland
India's tele-density may double by 2007, but
it won't help rural folk.
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Increasing rural tele-density
will require not only different products, but maybe an entirely
different business model
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India's telcos have had it easy.
Parlaying the mobile mania that has gripped large parts of urban
and semi-urban India into a unique selling proposition for a service
that you don't really know you need till you have it (then, of
course, it becomes indispensable) they have, at least some of
them, built huge subscriber bases. In some metros, the tele-density
is as high as 40 per cent.
Growing at the same pace will not be easy in the future. The
telcos will have to look for growth in rural areas with a tele-density
less than 1 per cent. The companies themselves and the vendors
who supply equipment to them are confident that they can operate
in an environment that entails high investment and low profits.
That won't be easy. Connecting rural areas is an expensive proposition,
as is maintaining rural networks. And while micro-finance initiatives
may provide a way out, as they are for fast moving consumer goods
companies such as Hindustan Lever Limited, increasing tele-density
in rural areas will require an entirely different set of products,
maybe an entirely new business model. And all efforts to connect
rural areas will be on the wireless platform (it costs less and
can be rolled out quickly). "It is a market that no player
can afford to ignore," says Sanjay Gopal, Partner, Accenture.
That would explain why companies are developing low-cost handsets
and network solutions for rural areas.
Despite the obvious benefits that connectivity will bring to
rural areas-apart from economic gains it will help the cause of
e-governance, telemedicine and education-it is unlikely that the
map on page 97 will change colours anytime soon. For one, it may
still be a better economic option for telcos to strive for incremental
growth in the metros and large cities than target rural areas.
For another, they may realise that it is much more profitable
for them to focus on offering value-added services to existing
high-end customers. Rural tele-density will increase (as it should),
but not anytime soon.
Who's better? Who's best?
India's telcos, who they are, where they operate,
how many customers they serve, and other related info.
Aircel Cellular: Two circles, Chennai and
TN, 1.7 million subscribers. Mobile telephony (GSM). The company
has been in play for some time. Russia's Sistema has been mentioned
as a possible buyer.
PROMOTER/MANAGEMENT: C. Sivasankaran
Bharti Tele-Ventures: 23 circles,
11.4 million subscribers.
Mobile telephony (GSM); Fixed-line; Broadband; National and international
long distance telephony. India's largest private sector telco,
and the most profitable.
PROMOTER/MANAGEMENT: The Mittal family
BPL Mobile & BPL Cellular: Four
circles, Mumbai, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, 2 million subscribers.
Mobile Telephony (GSM). Once one of India's leading telcos, it
has since fallen on hard times.
PROMOTER/MANAGEMENT: Rajeev Chandrasekhar
BSNL: 21 circles (all India, barring
Mumbai and Delhi), 43.8 million subscribers. Fixed line; Mobile
telephony (on GSM; planning CDMA-platform services too); Broadband;
National long-distance telephony; International long-distance
telephony (has licence). Government owned and the fastest growing
telco.
PROMOTER/MANAGEMENT: Govt.-owned/ A.K. Sinha, CMD
HFCL Infotel: One circle (Punjab),
225,000 subscribers. Fixed and mobile telephony (CDMA).
PROMOTER/MANAGEMENT: Mahendra Nahata, Vinay Maloo
Hutchison Essar: 13 circles (predominantly
present in the metros and the northern part of the country), 7.6
million subscribers. Mobile telephony (GSM). Pure-play mobile
telephony company that boasts the highest average revenues per
user.
PROMOTER/MANAGEMENT: Hutchison Whampoa/Essar
Idea Cellular: Eight circles, three
more to be added this year, currently in Maharashtra, Gujarat,
Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Haryana, UP (West), MP and Delhi, 5.15
million subscribers. Mobile telephony (GSM). Another pure-play
mobile telephony player; a slow starter.
PROMOTER/MANAGEMENT: A.V. Birla Group, Tata Group, STT-TMI
combine
MTNL: Two circles (Delhi and Mumbai),
5.1 million subscribers. Fixed line; Mobile telephony (GSM and
CDMA). Like BSNL, state-owned and very profitable.
PROMOTER/MANAGEMENT: Govt.-owned/ R.S.P. Sinha, CMD
Reliance Infocomm: 21 circles (almost
all India barring Assam and North-East), 10.6 million subscribers.
Fixed and mobile telephony (CDMA); National and international
long distance services; Broadband. The company that changed the
rules of the game by successfully lobbying for fixed telephony
licence holders to be allowed to offer mobile telephony services
using the CDMA platform.
PROMOTER/MANAGEMENT: The Ambanis
Reliance Telecom: Seven Circles,
North East India, Assam, Orissa, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, West
Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar and Madhya Pradesh, 1.1 million
subscribers. Mobile telephony (GSM). Reliance's first entry into
the Indian telecom space; fairly unsuccessful.
PROMOTER/MANAGEMENT: The Ambanis
Spice Telecom: Two circles, Punjab
and Karnataka, 1.4 million subscribers. Mobile telephony (GSM).
B.K, Modi runs Punjab, partner Distacom runs Karnataka.
PROMOTER/MANAGEMENT: B.K. Modi, Distacom
Tata Teleservices: 20 circles (all
India except Andaman & Nicobar, J&K and North-East), 4
million subscribers. Fixed and mobile telephony (CDMA); National
long distance telephony (international long distance telephony
through another Tata Group company, VSNL); Broadband. A slow starter,
it has recently moved into overdrive with aggressive network expansion
and marketing campaigns.
PROMOTER/MANAGEMENT: The Tata Group
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