India
posted an economic growth of 8.6 per cent for the quarter ended
December 2006, a pace that was at the lower end of the country's
growth rate of 9-10 per cent for the past several quarters.
The manufacturing sector, which accounts
for about one-fifth of India's GDP, slowed slightly in the quarter,
but still posted a very strong 10.7 per cent gain, year-over-year
in the quarter ended December 2006. Unlike many of its Asian neighbours,
India's manufacturing sector has not been driven by cheap exports
of goods. This is because the government and business have focused
capital on growth of India's service sector, which is unique to
any country in the world, rather than developing the manufacturing
sector.
For foreign firms, investing in India comes
at a cost and with associated risks. India's infrastructure is
in need of massive investment. While power reliability, living
conditions, and road congestion are improving, they are still
nowhere near the levels that businesses enjoy, say in the United
States. The country's bureaucratic mind-set runs deep, from the
government to the lowliest street vendor, making seemingly simple
tasks take much longer.
At one hand, India needs to fight such odds
to become a true manufacturing destination for the world and on
the other hand India has to allow labour reforms -- something
which already has been brought about in China.
Mostly, India's manufacturing sector has
been driven by domestic demand. But India's manufacturers also
face substantial headwinds due to a dismal domestic infrastructure,
a high level of government ownership, and too much of red-tape
for bringing in foreign investment. These factors weigh heavily
on innovation, competition, and development of highly efficient,
large-scale manufacturing facilities.
It is the same story for fast growing and
promising sectors like real estate or automobiles. It takes months
to clear proposals and to obtain permits. Also, interested parties
have to grapple with frequent change in government in the states.
As a result, the entire process needs to be started again.
A comparison with other major Asian countries
shows that the size of the value added in the Indian manufacturing
sector ($66 billion in 2000) was less than one fifth of the Chinese
manufacturing sector at $373 billion and even less than half of
the Korean manufacturing sector at $144 billion.
Share of the manufacturing sector in India's
GDP has remained stable at around 16 per cent, while in China
the manufacturing sector accounted for around 35 per cent of the
GDP and in the case of Korea, it was 31 per cent.
The 11th Five-Year Plan says that manufacturing
sector has to grow at 12 per cent per annum to sustain an average
GDP growth rate of 9 per cent. It plans to fill the gap of infrastructure
bottlenecks within the next 5-10 years.
However, it's not all gloomy. This sector
has been doing well in the recent past. In the last three years
of the UPA Government, the growth rate in manufacturing has accelerated
from 8.7 per cent to 9.1 per cent and further to 11.3 per cent
year-on-year basis.
Lead-time for new product development has
come down by as much as 50 per cent in the past three years. For
example, the development of the brake system in India takes 6
months, in Korea it is 8 months, in Germany 12-14 months. Inventories
are being reduced too -- by about 20 to 30 per cent in the last
four years, added to which is the reduction in defects -- from
about 20,000 parts per million (ppm) to below 100 ppm. On a scale
of 1-10, Indian manufactured goods quality could be 7, against
Germany's 9.
The story of India's innovative moves in
manufacturing does not end here. If we believe the 'Fast Track
Leadership' survey of business professionals conducted in October
2005 by IMD MBA, Fast Company magazine and human resources firm,
Egon Zehnder International, it is now well poised to grab US'
market share in certain business sectors. According to the survey,
China and India are likely to gain significant market share from
the US in the IT, automotive and Internet business sectors in
the future.
It is important to note that robust growth
of the manufacturing sector is imperative, because it is one of
the few opportunities, outside of the service sector, which can
provide employment for the rising wave of workers streaming into
urban areas in search of higher paying jobs.
And given the UPA government's prime motive
to bring inclusive growth in the country, a fillip in manufacturing
sector could be just what the doctor ordered.
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