TRENDS (Page 1)

AMISS: Those who put their foot in their mouth with quotes that went amiss. Here's a shortlist.

''A good monsoon and better agriculture production will provide the needful impetus to the economy, which would lead to a GDP growth of over 6 per cent this fiscal.''
RBI Governor Bimal Jalan, in July 2001.

''The strong financial performance is a result of NIIT's sustainable and steady business model.
NIIT CEO Rajendra S. Pawar, while declaring NIIT's first-quarter results in January 2001.

''We are quite pleased with the development and growth of Indya.com, which is our biggest investment in India.''
Star Group Chief Executive James Murdoch, during his July visit to India.

''By the turn of the year, we will be eyeball-to-eyeball with Star on ratings and revenues.''
Zee Broadcasting CEO Sandeep Goyal, while relaunching Zee's programming in August 2001.

AMBITIONS: THE FOUR BIGGEST PLAYS OF THE YEAR
I	II	III	IV

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), under its chief executive S. Ramadorai, sets its sights on making it among the top 10 information technology services companies in the world (it currently occupies the 14th position).	Aiming to bridge the digital divide, Academic-cum- visionary Ashok Jhunjhunwala (a professor at IIT-Madras) embarks on a project to connect the Indian hinterland with a cable TV-inspired Local Service Provider business model	Unfazed by the tech bust-up and the resultant slowdown, Karnataka's Chief Minister S.M. Krishna sets out to make Bangalore, India's undisputed infotech capital, the hub of the next big thing, biotechnology	Having established ColorPlus as the brand everyone wants to wear in India, Chairman of the Chennai-based company, Rajendra Mudaliar, announces his intention to make a serious play for the European market.

ANTHRAX: For a while Bacillus Anthracis had the Indian pharma industry going. Post 9-11, threats of bio-terrorism loomed large, and it looked like Bayer AG, the MNC holding the patent for Anthrax-cure Cipro couldn't cope with demand. The US Federal Drug Authority identified six companies including two Indian ones, Ranbaxy and Cipla that could be asked to supply Cipro. Then Bayer said it could meet any level of demand, the FDA said it would respect Bayer's patent, and the great opportunity withered away.

BRANDS: It's always going to be hard to pick the five new brands of the year-especially in a year when there were over a 30 launches of note, including the Mercedes C Class, Cadbury's Temptations, and Max New York Life. Our criteria was straightforward: the product should either have already turned around the fortunes of its owner or it should have radically redefined its category. See if you agree

Fiat Palio: With over 6,000 cars sold since its September launch, the Palio was Fiat's great white hope for a long-awaited turnaround.

Amul Pizza: At Rs 25 for an eight-inch factory-packed offering, Amul is redefining the price-value equation in the industry

Dr Morepen: Perhaps the first large-scale effort by an Indian pharma company to build an Over-The-Counter (OTC) brand

Microsoft Windows XP: The biggest world-wide launch of a software, and yes, it was felt in India thanks to some original advertising

Lagaan: Apart from choosing a theme related to cricket and nationalism, it changed the scale of film-advertising and merchandising.

BUY-BACKS: In the end, there was more noise than music. A casual observer may be forgiven for believing 2001 to be the year of buy-backs, for there was no shortage of announcements to the effect. But several companies-including Reliance Industries-that announced they were considering 'buy-backs' didn't really take the process to its logical conclusion. Buy-backs stabilise share prices. By buying up their own stock companies create demand that could drive up prices, suck up liquidity (thereby stabilising prices), and provide an opportunity for shareholders to exit.

In all, just about 20 companies went in for buy-backs in 2001, and the total amount involved was a measly Rs 1,003.85 crore. Of this, offers from just three companies-Raymond, GE Shipping, and Sterlite-accounted for Rs 566.94 crore. This time next year, companies may well be ruing an opportunity-missed.

CAMERAS (AS IN HIDDEN): Had Tehelka publicised the Armsgate scandal six months earlier, it would have had every veecee worth his moneybags running after it. As luck would have it, the dotcom broke its story when angels and venture capitalists alike were starting to look at the genre of companies it belonged to with suspicion, and ask questions about revenues and cash-flows, not clicks and hits.

Tehelka's own experience justified the asking of these unpleasant Qs: the website couldn't successfully convert the seven million hits a day it registered at the peak of Armsgate into revenues of any significant magnitude. ''After creating a national sensation, Tehelka should have found an avenue to monetise its content,'' says Rishi Sahai, a fund manager with venture capital firm Infinity Ventures. At least Tehelka is still around. In 2001, some Indian sites, Indya and Go4i-from the Microland and Hindustan Times stables, respectively-among them, died noisy deaths. Still others-there were more that belonged to this category-passed as quietly as ships in the night.

Will things look up anytime soon? Unlikely. Most sites depend on advertising for revenues and the online advertising market in 2001, was valued at between Rs 50 crore and Rs 75 crore. ''When will it get to the Rs 250-400 crore where it ought to be?'' asks Rediff CEO Ajit Balakrishnan. ''When home-based usership on the net gets to around 20 million from the present five million.'' QED

CONSULTANT (OF THE YEAR): It was a dull year for consultants and consulting firms. True, there was Project Green, the Boston Consulting Group's turnaround prescription for Thermax; the born-again Accenture's first it-outsourcing deal in India (for IndoRama); and Arthur D. Little's exit from the Indian market. But there isn't much else. That could explain our choice of consultant of the year. It's McKinsey's Ranjit Pandit, and the reason he is here is because, on September 6, he led the motley crew of suits that made a presentation to Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee on how India could get its economy to grow at over 10 per cent. The three problems identified by McKinsey as standing in the way of growth: product-market barriers, outdated tenancy laws and rent control acts, and the public sector.

There wasn't much that was path-breaking in the Firm's 13-point action plan, the result of a 16-month-long study. Still, it was the most happening event in a quiet year for corporate advisors, and the 10 per cent number got everyone's attention (we should consider ourselves lucky if the economy grows 6 per cent this year). Post-script: such country assignments seem to be the standard marketing practice at McKinsey; India is the 15th country for which the firm has prepared such a document. Other economies to have benefited from similar exercises in the past include the UK, Brazil, Sweden, and Japan.

DEFICIT: When Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha announced his efforts to cut the fiscal deficit down to manageable size in Budget 2001, he was universally cheered. Today, those cheers look premature. Despite the finance ministry's best efforts at window-dressing, the fiscal deficit is likely to jump to 5 per cent against the budgeted 4.7 per cent. Add to that a revenue deficit that has soared to 48 per cent; a massive hike of Rs 12,744 crore in non-plan expenditure (and this by end-September 2001); and a GDP growth rate that is unlikely to cross the 5 per cent mark, and the result is not a pretty picture.

Worse, there's little Sinha can do to mop up additional taxes, despite the rationalisation of central excise duty effected in his last Budget (2001-02). The shortfall in tax collection is estimated to be Rs 20,000 crore. Can't he control non-plan expenditure, then? Certainly not; over 80 per cent of it is already committed to interest payments, defence expenditure, wages, subsidies, loans and advances, and the like.

Strangely enough, apart from a few cosmetic changes like doing away with the post of the finance secretary, or a two-year suspension of leave travel allowance for government employees, the minister has done virtually nothing to keep the fiscal deficit in check. Unlike past years, there has been no special drive to mop up revenue or even implement the recommendations of the Expenditure Reforms Commission (ERC) concerning downsizing of various ministries. The only way out may be to cut plan expenditure budgeted at Rs 95,100 crore. But that could perpetuate the slowdown and hurt the economy even more. Either way, the economy ends up loser.

DPC: The Maharashtra State Government and the Maharashtra State Electricity Board (MSEB) may feel vindicated over Enron's Chapter 11 filing. If they do, the feeling will last only till the lawsuit filed against them by Dabhol Power Company for between $3 billion and $5 billion comes up for hearing in London. Says Mark J. Reidy, Attorney at Law, Thelen Reid & Priest LLP and a power-sector specialist: ''Simply put, Dabhol Power Corporation (DPC), has a very strong case against India.''

There is also the question of the impact of DPC's exit on Indian banks and financial institutions. Together, these loaned DPC Rs 6,100 crore. Succour for them can only come from the purchase of Enron's 65 per cent equity in DPC (plus the 10 per cent stake held by Bechtel and GE). While Tata Power and BSEs have showed some interest, neither is willing to shell out the $1 billion demanded-$500 million (Rs 235.5 crore) is more like it; after all, the buyer will have to invest upwards of Rs 2,500 crore in the project.

Potential bidders are also seeking a pound of flesh -the Pune distribution circle of MSEB that is Enron's sole customer. But the circle brings in Rs 2,000 crore of revenue and MSEB is unlikely to part with it. However, the final word must go to the Energy Review Committee set up by the State Government whose report says every one of State's assertions, relating to the benefits from dpc and the design and size of DPC was based on questionable assumptions. Oops!

ECONOMY: Suddenly, the 5-5.2 per cent at which the GDP is expected to grow in 2001-02 doesn't seem so bad. And even the 2 per cent rate of industrial growth the Indian economy will see for the year seems stratospheric when compared with Singapore's -21.4 per cent and Taiwan's -14 per cent. If things go well, India could end 2001-02 as the fourth fastest growing economy in the world after China, Egypt, and Bangladesh. If, as some economists argue, it is the insular nature of the Indian economy that is responsible for this, then, are there merits to staying aloof from the global economy? ''No way,'' says Jiban K. Mukhopadhyay, Editor, Statistical Outline of India, and an advisor to the Tata Group. ''Staying insular is the approach of a defeatist.'' Apart from the fact that it is a low base (a gross domestic product of $479 billion or Rs 2,25,13,100 crore) that is responsible for a relatively high growth figure, there are other signs that point in favour of integration, as opposed to insularity. Primary among these is the fact that an integrated economy will grow at breakneck speed when the global economy is booming.

Despite the 1997-98 financial crisis in South Asia, Hong Kong and Singapore grew at over 10 per cent, Korea at 9 per cent, and Malaysia, 8 per cent. Consequently, the living standard in these countries is far higher than in India.

Despite a two-year-old recession, the typical Japanese salaryman is better off than his Indian counterpart. And if insularity is good, then, how come China, a far more integrated economy than India, expects to grow by 7-8 per cent this year?

E-BIZ: The announcements of offline shoots by Fabmart and Firstandsecond were indicative of the insignificant volume of B2C business in India. ''e-Tailing is a long-gestation business in India,'' concedes K. Vaitheeswaran, Vice President (Marketing), Fabmart. B2C dotcoms say their revenues are growing-Rediff says its sales this festive season were 70 per cent higher over last year's; Sifymall claims its sales have grown 105 per cent over the past six months-but absolute numbers are not forthcoming from most. The two notable exceptions are Fabmart, which registered sales of Rs 6 crore between April and December 2001, and Firstandsecond, which did Rs 4 crore.

Things were less soporific in the b2b space (although, by the end of 2001, it had become unfashionable to use terms like B2B, B2C, and C2C). B2B exchanges like Freemarket and Gate2biz forged relationships with large corporate houses. The former, for instance, bagged a Rs 100-crore deal from Tata Engineering and is also working with Carrier and GlaxoSmithKline. ''Companies are still not ready to go all the way,'' rues Subroto Banerjee, the CEO of Trade2gain, commenting on the reluctance of companies to move the bulk of their sourcing online.

E-TAINERS: The year's biggest releases were Aamir Khan's Lagaan, Dreamz Unlimited's Asoka, and Yash Raj Film's Kabhi Khushi Kabhie Gham. All took marketing to a new level; two of them (Asoka and k3g) even had books on their making. But it was Lagaan's mix of patriotism and cricket that won (most of K3G's revenues will come in 2002). Estimates put Asoka's box-office revenues since its October-release at Rs 5 crore; Lagaan's, since its June-release at four times that. And none came cheap: Lagaan is supposed to have cost Rs 25 crore, Asoka, Rs 18 crore, and K3G, Rs 25 crore in the making.