JULY 21, 2002
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Nasscom Does Some Brain Racking
Slowdown or not, NASSCOM is still eyeing Indian software revenues of $77 billion by 2008. Just what will make it happen? To get a strategy together, it got some top minds to meet in Hyderabad at the India it and ITEs Strategy Summit 2002. A report on what came of it.


Q&A With Ashraf Dimitri
The CEO of Oasis Technology, a key provider of e-payments software, tries to win over converts to a new system.

More Net Specials
Business Today,  July 7, 2002
 
 
Once They Were Giants
There are some new faces in the honours list of Indian family-business groups. The list, alas, is still manufacturing-intensive.
Late patriarch M.A. Chidambaram (centre), A.C. Muthiah (right), and Ashwin Muthiah: A casualty of competition

In the end, scale won out. Reliance moved to the top of the heap of family business groups in the past decade with a distinctly old-world strategy of striving for market dominance through building global scale. The Tata Group and the Aditya Vikram Birla Group remain in the top three. And the entire list has an overwhelming manufacturing bias. Reliance and the A V Birla Group have built global scale in commodity-businesses. So have two of the three new-entrants, the Sterlite and OP Jindal groups. The moral: asset-intensive market dominance strategies work.

Expect that to change: An ambitious telecom venture will increase Reliance's services-revenues; and vsnl, Tata Teleservices, and TCS, will account for a chunk of the Tata Group's. Organised retail is RPG Enterprises' great white hope. Even the Aditya Birla Group has made a tentative foray into services.

  The Cabinet Of Dr Vajpayee  
  The Bollywood Connection  
  Behind The Numbers  
  Springtime For CEOs  

Strangely enough, none of the new economy's stars that can be classified as family business groups-there are a few led by Wipro and Ranbaxy-come close. Both companies named in the previous sentence will one day be part of the list, but not anytime soon.

Between 1991 and 2001, the combined sales of the top ten family groups increased from Rs 31,452 crore to Rs 1,30,630 crore; their net profits from Rs 1,434.08 crore to Rs 10,279 crore. Significantly, the net profit margin for most groups has fallen, though a few groups have managed to show some improvement-Reliance has actually managed to double it.

Arvind Mafatlal (left) and Hrishikesh Mafatlal: Their diversifications bombed

Three family groups have seen their fortunes plummet in the decade that was.

The Chennai-based M.A. Chidambaram Group has dropped to number 15 on the list. Its diversifications, into pharmaceuticals, power, telecom, and petrochemicals have either remained on paper, or not borne the desired results. And Chairman A.C. Muthiah's ability to manage the environment and thrive in the licence raj hasn't stood him in good stead in a free market.

The late M.R. Chabbria: His empire is out of the honours club

The same can be said of original raider, the late Manohar Rajaram Chabbria's empire (the group is now ranked 50) which includes the likes of Shaw Wallace and Dunlop.

The Arvind Mafatlal Group has done worse; it has dropped to 52 on the ranking. Unrelated diversifications and sub-optimal scale didn't help its cause. Nor did an acrimonious battle over the control of NOCIL that forced the Mafatlal family to buy out the stake of its joint venture partner, Shell.

In contrast, the three family groups that have entered the top 10 have been able to ride the liberalised business context of the past decade to their benefit. There's a moral in that, but it's so worn-out that we're not goint to repeat it here.


NEW FACES
The Cabinet Of Dr Vajpayee
A cosmetic make-over may not mean all that much for business.

Yashwant Sinha
Yes, he did use some of his diplomatesse in dealings with IMF and World Bank, but surely that doesn't qualify him for the external affairs ministry. One saving grace: he won't be able to roll back anything there.

Jaswant Singh
The policy wonk may be a political choice to head the finance ministry, but he is a liberal at heart and extremely pro-reforms. A BJP-vet, he may actually be better placed to co-ordinate reforms-related action plans with other ministries.

Shanta Kumar
His pragmatic approach made him an unpopular foods minister and may have effected his transfer. Still, its not as if there are no hard decisions to take in the rural development ministry

Arun Shourie
His sterling performance in the disinvestment ministry may have resulted in his portfolio being untouched, but he may have actually made a very good finance minister.

Arun Jaitley
The man was responsible for key legislation-in-the-making regarding sick companies and the Competition Bill. Moving him out of the law ministry looks like a retrogade step.

K. Jana Krishnamurthy
Krishnamurthy may be a lawyer, but he'll have to work hard to do a Jaitley in the law ministry.

 


DREAM SEQUENCE
The Bollywood Connection
Indians account for just half-a-per cent of the over 32 million visitors Switzerland plays host to every year. But that's just half the story.

Switzerland: If it is a song sequence, it has to be the Swiss Alps

India and Pakistan nearly went to war this summer, and the Swiss benefited. You read that sentence right, the Swiss did benefit. With most embassies downsizing staff, visas for Indians travelling out weren't all that easily available. The UK, for instance, said it wouldn't issue visas to first-time travellers for some time. Switzerland did no such thing and holiday-makers eyeing other locations in the UK and continental Europe gleefully opted for the country. The only discordant note in this otherwise happy aria was the number of other Indians one would encounter in Switzerland.

Till April 2002, India accounted for a mere half-a-per cent of the 11 million odd visitors to Switzerland this year, till April 2002. Israel did 0.8 per cent and Brazil 0.6 per cent. Of the 4 million plus Indians who head out every year, just about 5 per cent visit Switzerland. May and June may have redressed those statistics some, but Switzerland doesn't really need any help in selling itself to Indians.

The proportion may be insignificant, but there has been an exponential growth in the number of Indians headed for the Swiss Alps. Between 1998 and 2001, the number tripled, from 55,102 to 178,613, a jump of 300 per cent. This, when, outbound tourism grew at an average rate of 2 per cent.

The Swiss claim their tourism department has been working hard in India. They don't really need to. "The Indian outbound travel market is maturing with travellers looking beyond Singapore and Thailand," says Uttam Dave, CEO of PKF Consultants. Switzerland has caught Mr. Bharat's fancy largely because of Bollywood's love affair with the locale, even if for just one out-of-context song and dance sequence in the film. Maybe that's one reason to shun Switzerland and look to deepest Africa the next time you plan a vacation.


BOOK-WORM
Behind The Numbers
Ten insights from the statistics-heavy NRS 2002.

1. Print readership has grown 10 per cent, from 163 million in 2000 to 180 million in 2002.
Nearly 48 per cent of print readership comes from rural India. It is here that the future of print lies: 248 million literate adults largely in rural areas, do not read any publication.

2. The average television viewing timing has come down from 85 minutes per day/per person in 1999 to 82 minutes in 2002.
A surprising trend, but such a minor drop in viewership is unlikely to impact television advertising, as the medium still accounts for 72 per cent of the 13-hours a week urban adults spend on any traditional medium.

3. Readership of newspapers/dailies has gone up 20 per cent, from 131 million in 1999 to 156 million in 2002.
Apart from English and Hindi dailies, a large part of this growth came from Marathi, Telugu and Malayalam dailies. Readership of Tamil dailies actually declined by 7 per cent.

4. Magazines have been the biggest losers, with readership declining almost 10.4 per cent.
English magazines have registered a marginal decline of around 3 per cent. All other regional language publications saw readership drop 10 per cent.

5. The internet user base in the country has gone up 50 per cent, from 4.11 million in 2001 to 6.02 million in 2002.
At a mere 3 per cent of the country's total readership base of around 180 million, the medium is far from being anywhere near mass one.

6. Cable & Satellite penetration has jumped 37 per cent, from 29 million households in 1999 to 40 million in 2002.
Growth in television advertising during the same period has kept pace with the cable and satellite penetration in the country.

7. Hindi dailies added over 10 million new readers in a span of two years.
The engine of this growth has been rural India, which accounted for close to 60 per cent of the 10-million new readers.

8. Newspaper readership grew by around 10.4 per cent between 2000 and 2002; it grew at a phenomenal 49 per cent in households with a monthly income above Rs 10,000.
Dropping cover prices may have nothing to do with purchase decisions.

9. Magazines lost nearly 10 million readers between 2000 (96 million) and 2002 (86.2 million).
A loss of nearly 6 million odd urban readers made this a double-whammy.

10. The only silver lining for magazines is the 25.6 per cent jump in readership in households with a monthly income over Rs 10,000
Ad relevant readership, did you say?


EXECUTIVE TRACKING
Springtime For CEOs
Recession or not, there's an unsated demand for senior managers out there in India Inc.

Pranab Barua: He spurned several offers to start it up

In January 2002, Pranab Barua put in his papers at Reckitt Benckiser, not the first chief executive officer to quit after differences with regional HQ on how the Indian ops needed to be run. In June 2002, he announced the formation of Veriture, a consulting firm targeting the fast moving consumer goods business.

In the five months between the two events, he is rumoured to have said no to at least two heavy-duty offers. Reports go that Ninu Khanna, Dabur's low-profile chief executive, and now the CEO of Bombay Dyeing, tossed up between rival offers before deciding on the textiles major.

And the man he replaced, Adhiraj Sarin is busy evaluating the several offers on hand-all posts come with a corner room.

Corporate India's search for a few good men (and women) hasn't been impacted by the slowdown. Announcements regarding a senior exec moving from one company to another actually elicit a rash of alternative offers.

Exit Stage Left
R. Sankaran: Time to move on
Mergers and movements go together. The buzz in head-hunting circles has it that R. Sankaran, who sold the investment banking arm of his company Ind Global Finance to Andersen last year, is looking to move on.

The reason? Andersen has been acquired by Ernst & Young and the corporate finance business of the merged entity isn't big enough for Sankaran, a 52-year-old former head of investment banking at Standard Chartered, and his counterpart from Ernst & Young Rajiv Memani, the son of the company's Chairman Kashi Nath Memani.

Good move, Munesh (in case you missed it, the former head of Andersen's corporate finance business moved to N.M. Rothschild some time back). Watch this space for an update.

hfcl's head of hr Rajinder Sinh (he moved from Ranbaxy) was considering a move to Raymond. Then, Reliance got whiff. Result? Sinh today serves as President (hr) for the company's petroleum business.

Even head-hunters, those eternal optimists, admit that things have rarely been better for senior managers. "Times were never bad for performers," soft-pedals Atul Vohra, CEO, Heidrick & Struggles. "But today, the number of opportunities have increased substantially." So much so that companies are no longer shy of hiring execs who have left their previous jobs under far-from-ideal circumstances.

''We recently presented a person who had been fired from his previous job to a client," admits Preety Kumar, Chief Executive, Amrop. "Ultimately, it is competence that matters."

The demand for senior managers has come as a boon for Indian executive search firms. Globally, the business may have declined by 30 per cent last year but all's well in the subcontinent. And headhunters have people like Barua to thank for it.

 

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