One thing that never ceases to amaze observers of Indian economy is the stubborn, plodding way in which it continues to grow. Soaring economies may buckle under crippling debt, the richest consumers may stop spending, or the most innovative of economies may find a turnaround impossible. But India, like the elephant it is, will continue to stumble along due to the sheer force of its momentum. Did you know, for instance, that in the last 23 years, the economy has grown at an annual average of 5.7 per cent? Not too many economies, with the exception of China, can boast of having done that.

As we approach the end of one fiscal and the start of another, things look fairly happy. Consumer confidence is up (See page 41), and business confidence-according to a ficci survey-while marginally down, is robust enough. For example, 76 per cent of the survey respondents say that their companies would do better in the next six months. And 68 per cent think the economy would do better. So, the optimists still form the majority. On its part, the government is likely to set itself a 7 per cent growth target for 2003-04, although it is almost certain that it will never be met.

For one, the Central Statistical Organisation has come out with surprisingly low growth estimates for the current fiscal (at 4.4 per cent). Going from 4.4 to 7 would be near impossible, even if agriculture made a rebound and services surged. However, a 6 per cent rate should be within reach for two reasons. One, the CSO's estimates seem lower than the actual growth rate, which the Finance Ministry and the RBI have put at between 5 and 5.5 per cent. Therefore, going from 5.5 to 6 is relatively easy.

There's another reason why the CSO may be wrong. The biggest drag on growth this fiscal has been agriculture, where production is believed to have shrunk by more than 3 per cent. But don't forget that drought was the culprit here, and the government depends on the states for production figures. It is in the states' interest to paint a picture that is more alarming than it actually is, because then they can ask for more drought relief funds. Besides, corporate growth has been impressive for the nine months of this fiscal. That's evident in corporate tax collections, which are up by a quarter at Rs 29,222 crore.

In fact, it is expected that when the CSO puts out revised figures for 2002-03 in June, the growth figures would be higher-certainly higher than 5 per cent. After all, most of the other sectors-including manufacturing, mining, communications, construction and trade-have grown at more than 5 per cent. An expert panel of the Board of India Today Economists (See page 76) has predicted at least a 6 per cent growth in GDP for 2003-04.

The problem, however, is that India might still be leaving growth to chance. And we are not just talking about the biggest scare of the moment: a US-Iraq war, which if it drags on could do much damage to the Indian economy. That's something the government can do little about. What's worrying, however, is that the government seems to be doing little about the things it can help. Infrastructure, for example. The key to consumer demand is prices, and that in turn depends on efficient productivity. If companies have to depend on expensive self-generated power, or live with outages and delays in movement of raw materials and finished goods, they will necessarily have to price their products and services high to survive. But doing so will not help expand markets, especially to rural India. Similarly, if we do nothing to harvest rain water or improve produce processing and marketing, agriculture will continue to suffer.

Therefore, the government's 7 per cent growth target is meaningless unless it lays out a plan to achieve it. As things stand, we are leaving growth in the hands of a few enterprising manufacturers, farmers, and service providers. And, true to our record, while we may still grow, it won't be to the extent we can or should.