Were free lunches ever on offer to
investors in mutual funds? Yes, yes, and yes, and a combination
of two things made this possible. One, a traditionally undervalued
stockmarket had to explode sometime (don't we know that now!) and
anyone smart enough to invest some money in a diversified equity
fund and patient enough to wait for returns wouldn't have been disappointed.
For the record, most funds of this genus generated returns in excess
of 100 per cent in 2003-04. And two, a consistent fall in interest
rates-the bank rate has fallen from 10.5 per cent to 6 per cent
over the past five years-made earning money on debt funds as easy
as withdrawing cash from an automated teller machine.
The fairy-tale ride, alas, seems to be over. Although most analysts
are bullish about the future performance of the stockmarket, it
is unlikely that the upside will match the 2,904 to 6,250 ride the
Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex went on between April 28, 2003 and
January 9, 2004. And interest rates will not fall any lower. If
they do firm up, as some people expect them to, investors could
actually end up losing money on ''safe'' debt funds.
Should the smart investor eschew mutual funds altogether? We wouldn't
advise that. Mutual funds come with a clutch of advantages that
few other investment instruments can match: a diversified portfolio,
an expert fund manager, and tax benefits. To elaborate on the last,
dividends from mutual funds, even debt funds, are tax-free. Ergo,
unless you are completely risk-averse-opt for public provident fund,
post office savings schemes, and RBI Relief Bonds in that case-you
cannot afford to ignore mutual funds.
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"Investors
should not expect returns in excess of 4-5 per cent from debt
fund"
Nimish Shah/Director/Parag Parikh Financial Advisory
Services |
Now that you have decided to take the mutual fund route, what type
of fund should you look at: equity, balanced, or debt? There's no
one correct answer to this. An investor's choice of fund-type should
logically be a function of his risk-taking ability. And investors
can choose between a passive strategy of allocating assets between
debt and equity in a pre-determined proportion, or an active one
of altering their proportions according to market conditions.
The Passive Approach
This may be called a passive strategy, but it still requires you
to do a few things. First, identify your financial goals. This could
be a retirement cache, a child's education, or, simply, wealth accumulation.
Next, identify your risk profile. This is a function of the time
horizon of your investments (volatility evens out in the long-term,
so you can choose a high-risk investment option if your time horizon
is long), age and the quality of assets you already own. One simple
rule of thumb: your exposure to equity (directly or through mutual
funds) should be 100 less your age.
Arriving at an asset allocation ratio is easy; maintaining it
is very, very difficult. ''Investors may have gone overboard on
debt last year (because the stockmarket was doing badly),'' says
Abhay Aima, Country Head (Equities and Private Banking) Group, HDFC
Bank. ''Or they may have gone overboard on equity this year.'' Ergo,
it makes sense to consciously balance this out year after year.
MAKING THE RIGHT
MUTUAL FUND DECISION |
Introspect and decide
what kind of investor you are, passive, or active
Passive investors need to allocate
and maintain investments across debt and equity funds in a
pre-determined proportion
Active investors need to pick
funds on the basis of their performance and the fund manager's
approach
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The Active Approach
Good, you've decided to take the road less travelled. Should you
look at equity at all? Well, do not expect a repeat of the past
six months but do invest in equity for more than modest returns.
''A 18 per cent to 20 per cent return from the current level is
possible,'' says HDFC Bank's Aima. ''This makes equity a good asset
class.'' And with debt returning between 5 per cent and 6 per cent,
the 18-20 per cent return looks attractive. Aima also believes there
is no need for investors to consider sector-specific funds given
that ''the rally (in the stockmarket) will continue to be broad
based.''
That doesn't mean investors should avoid debt funds. Only, they
need to realign their expectations and understand what they are
getting into. ''They shouldn't expect returns in excess of 4-5 per
cent,'' says Nimish Shah, Director, Parag Parikh Financial Advisory
Services. ''Short-term investments in debt funds with long maturity
papers could impact returns, even put capital to risk if interest
rates tune volatile,'' warns Namit Nayegandhi, a portfolio advisor
at J.M. Morgan Stanley.
Fund-type chosen, we come to the tough task of choosing the fund
itself. Past performance (after adjusting for risk) should give
investors some idea of how this can be done. This magazine, for
instance, tracks funds on a monthly basis and the best funds, in
terms of their performance over 2003-04 have been listed in the
article following this for ready reference. Investors would also
do well to look closely at the management style of funds. An aggressive
fund manager will likely focus on a few sectors and stocks, while
a conservative one will work towards maintaining a diversified portfolio.
''There is nothing like a low risk, high return fund,'' laughs Aima.
There are enough mutual fund rankings around-although we'd like
to swear by your own-and some credit rating agencies actually rate
debt funds on the basis of asset quality. Still, diversification
is a preferred investing strategy. ''Investing in the best four
or five mutual fund schemes will help you create a well-diversified
mutual fund portfolio,'' says Rajiv Bajaj, MD, Bajaj Capital. We'd
recommend that.
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