MARCH 3, 2002
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Stanley Fischer Unplugged
He has the rare distinction of having advised through the half-a-dozen economic crises of the 90s. But now economist Stanley Fischer is calling it quits at the International Monetary Fund, and joining Citicorp as Vice Chairman. In India recently, Fischer spoke on IMF, India, and the global recession.
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Empire of the Sun
The Khemkas of the Russia-based Sun group lost the race for IBP, but they aren't calling it quits.
Nand Khemka (sitting); Uday and Shiv Vikram Khemka (standing left to right): still in the game

As far as recall value goes, the Khemkas of the Sun Group will for some time to come be known as the guys who didn't bag IBP. But if Nand Khemka and his two sons, Shiv Vikram and Uday are to be believed, the bid for the oil PSU (along with Russian firm Stroithgaz) was only the beginning. ''The disinvestment process is what drew us more to India,'' says Shiv Vikram Khemka, Executive Director. ''We have a 20-30 year perspective for India.'' The Khemkas fancy their chances because of the success they've met with in the disinvestment process in Russia: Out of 35 bids, they succeeded in 27. The Khemkas aren't revealing the PSUs they're targeting, preferring to only identify the sector they've identified: oil and energy.

  Executive Tracking
 
  Victory In Defeat? It Maybe  

The Khemkas (no connection to the Khemkas of the NEPC group) began operations in India more than 100 years ago. By the 1940s they had become the largest exporters of iron ore from India. Since then, the family has graduated from being a trading house to a diversified conglomerate. It was Nand Khemka, who founded the Sun group in the mid-50s when he sniffed business opportunities in the erstwhile Soviet Union. Today, this private investment group is present in the US, Europe, Russia, and India, and claims a turnover of over $1 billion. The Khemkas' presence in India today spans industries: a joint venture with Mahindra & Mahindra, a tie-up with NIIT, a presence in an asset management company, Sun F&C, and a technology firm, Westbridge Capital. Can they add a PSU to that list?


EXECUTIVE TRACKING
There's a churn on at BPL Mobile. And a poaching war in the offing in software.

Girish Rangan: another departure from BPL Mobile

Rajeev chandrasekhar is still losing them-his key employees, we mean. The latest to go are the CEO of BPL Mobile, Girish Rangan, and the company's finance advisor Anindo Mukherjee. Rangan moves to consumer payment solutions company Venture Infotek and Mukherjee returns to former employer ICICI as the CEO of ICICI Bank's BPO business. More churn, the buzz goes, is in the offing. Sify, too, continues to lose people. Ramesh Ramanthan, the head of the ISP business, seems to have had more than his fill of the new economy and is going 'old economy' with a vengeance: he is reported to be taking over as the CEO of Ceat's Sri Lankan operation. And finally, there may be an Infosys-Wipro face-off in the offing. In a first-of-its-kind move, Wipro has poached a senior manager from rival Infosys. The person in question is Deepak Rao, the head of consulting for Infosys in London. Will this trigger a poaching spree among the IT majors?


RELIANCE
Victory in Defeat? It Maybe
Reliance loses out in its bid for IBP and VSNL. Really?

RIL's Anil Ambani: not the end of the road

On the surface, they appear outright losers. When their bids for acquiring PSU majors IBP and VSNL were rejected last fortnight, the instant market reaction was that the Ambanis' plans in the refining and telecom sectors had received a huge jolt. After all, once the petroleum sector is decontrolled in April, Reliance Petroleum Ltd (RPL) will have to sell the produce from its 27 million tonne refinery at Jamnagar through its own outlets; currently RPL doesn't have a single one. If IBP was to come into the Ambani fold, RPL would have got 1,552 fuel stations at a stroke. As for VSNL, Reliance's opportunity to gain an instant monopoly in international long distance (ILD) voice services appeared to have flown out of the window.

But scratch the surface, and the situation doesn't appear so glum. Even if the Ambanis did lose out, it isn't the end of the road for their ambitions in these two sectors. Consider the silver lining. A Mumbai-based oil and energy consultant points out that there's no way Reliance would put on the table Rs 1,152 crore (which is what IOC paid) for IBP. ''It's not an economically-viable proposition,'' he says. Anil Ambani, Managing Director, RIL has made it clear that acquisitions will be made keeping shareholders' interests in mind. ''Reliance is looking at a benchmark IRR of 20 per cent,'' he said recently when announcing RIL's third-quarter results. Clearly, the bids for IBP and VSNL were made keeping that rate of return in mind.

But, nevertheless, the fact remains that Reliance has lost access to 1,500-odd retail outlets.

This may sound like sour grapes, but the Ambanis apparently hold a view that you don't need those many pumps to capture a large marketshare. Apparently, putting up 150 retail outlets at the right place can help a company capture 80 per cent of the market. Another option for Reliance, which it is reportedly considering is to take the franchisee route, thereby significantly reducing its costs. A combination of owned and franchised pumps could also be an option.

Of course, don't forget that HPCL and BPCL too will soon come under the hammer. Analysts point out that the Ambanis would be more serious about buying out HPCL, as there is a mismatch between its refining capacity and the quantity it sells. HPCL refines 13 million tonnes annually, but sells 20 million tonnes, so Reliance's refining capacity would take care of the mismatch. In the case of BPCL, there is no such mismatch.

As far as VSNL goes, analysts point out that there must be not much heartburn in the Ambani camp. VSNL might have a monopoly in international long-distance (ILD) voice services, but that comes to an end in April, and private players will soon ensure that the monopoly is eroded. What's more, Reliance is building its own telecom infrastructure, so it didn't need VSNL as badly as the Tatas did. And since Reliance paid Rs 100 crore to the government as fee for a NLD licence just three days before the final bid, analysts feel that the country's premier group was sending signals that it was not interested in VSNL anymore.

MTNL, on the other hand, should make more sense, points out an analyst, primarily for its customer base, which as an analyst points out, ''isn't easy to replicate, unlike in the case of VSNL.'' However, it's precisely for this reason that the Bharti group and the Tatas will be as keen, if not keener, to get MTNL. The fireworks have only just begun.

 

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