When Kurt
Hellstrom assumed charge of Telefonaktiebolaget
lm Ericsson (Ericsson, for short) in July 1999, his brief was to
stem the slide at this 126-year-old Swedish telecom giant. He began
well by showing an improvement in profits in 1999's third quarter.
By January 2001, Hellstrom was kicked up
as CEO. There couldn't have been a worse time to take over, what
with the global telecom industry hitting a major slump, after years
of 40-50 per cent growth. By end-2001, Ericsson had notched up a
loss as big as its previous year's profit. ''It's never been so
bad, for all of us,'' shrugs the 58-year-old Hellstrom, who rides
a Harley when he's not leading the mobile internet charge at Ericsson.
Last fortnight, Hellstrom was on a whistle-stop tour of India, meeting
customers in Delhi and Mumbai, including Bharti and Reliance.
The Ericsson CEO also found time for an
exclusive interview with Business
Today's Associate Editor Brian Carvalho,
in which he articulated his plan of making Ericsson the No 1 player
in mobile multimedia products in five years. Excerpts:
Q. Ericsson has forecast that by 2003, mobile
internet users will outstrip fixed internet users. On what basis
has Ericsson made this prediction?
"With 3G, you will be able to watch
live news, films, events, play real-time games, and participate
in video conferences with your handset-all in digital quality.
It's all about freedom, convenience, and personalised services.'' |
A. As per our estimates, at the end of
2001, there were 940-950 million mobile subscribers. We expect this
figure to go up to 1.6 billion by end-2005. By 2005, the fixed internet
base is expected to be around 1.5 billion. So, the figures say it
all. Then, look at the Japanese market, where thanks largely to
NTT DoCoMo's i-mode system, there were as many as 48 million mobile
internet users last year.
Basically, it's going to be technologies behind
mobile internet that will fuel its growth, right from GPRS to 3g
to Bluetooth to Multimedia Messaging Systems (MMS). GPRS, for instance,
ensures that one is always online, and mobile networks are rapidly
upgrading to this technology. 3g, with its higher data speeds, and
mms can help bring live colour pictures, animations, text, audio
and video clips to the mobile.
But what's the big deal about mobile internet?
Why will it become so popular?
Mobile internet will mean that you can have
your office in your pocket. You can trade online on the stockmarkets
without waiting to buy or sell. It's also useful for location-based
services. You can search for the best restaurant in the neighbourhood
and avoid traffic jams and blocked roads. And with 3g, you will
be able to watch live news, films, events, play real-time games,
and participate in video conferences with your handset-all in digital
quality. It's all about freedom, convenience, and personalised services.
Last fortnight at the cebit tradeshow, we
saw some pretty high-profile alliances being worked out in the field
of mobile telephony-Microsoft with German mobile operator T-Mobil
and Nokia with Real Networks to name two. Are you concerned about
these developments, particularly Microsoft's strides in mobile internet?
We will see many such alliances in the days
ahead; there's no exclusivity about them. In fact, Ericsson formed
a joint venture operation with Microsoft more than two years ago
(to build and market mobile e-mail solutions for network operators).
I am not too concerned about Microsoft's moves in the mobile internet
field, since Microsoft is not too willing to adapt to the mobile
world.
"The good news is that there are lesser
issues now. By 2005-06, we expect India to have 50-70 million
mobile subscribers. Fixed line users by then would be around
46-48 million.'' |
What prompted Ericsson to partner with Sony
in the handset business?
When we got into the joint venture with Sony
(some five months ago), the big shift in telecom, from voice-centric
to data-centric applications, had just begun to happen. So we realised
that a combination of technologies was needed. Ericsson, with its
over 125-year history, has expertise in telecom. But one of our
weaknesses is industrial design. We needed to have competence in
high-quality audio, video (to build in small cameras) and in providing
the consumer touch. That's where Sony makes a good fit, giving us
access to games, music, pictures, the entire gamut, allowing us
to become not just a mobile phone maker, but also a multimedia communications
products company.
When can we expect the results of this joint
venture to begin showing?
We have just launched a promotional campaign
for the products from the joint venture company (Sony Ericsson Mobile
Communications), but these products are basically just a combination
of the new Ericsson and Sony handsets. By the year-end, we will
be ready to roll out completely new products on a completely new
platform.
The global telecom industry has been in
the throes of a slowdown for more than a year now. Do you expect
the current year to be better than 2001?
The slowdown in telecom began way back in the
fourth quarter of 2000, and not post-September 11, 2001 as many
believe. Since then, the industry has gone through its toughest
phase ever, and everybody has got hurt. In the 90s, all of us were
used to 30-40 per cent growth at the least. This sudden decline
has hurt very badly, which is reflected in the 600,000 jobs that
have been eliminated in this sector.
In the current year, I expect the mobile services
market to be flat at best; a decline of up to 10 per cent can't
be ruled out. The fixed line networks will decline at a faster rate.
But as far as cellular handsets go, I expect a 10 per cent growth
this year in volumes, although there will be a decline in value.
The volume increase will be fuelled largely by GPRS, which is finally
taking off.
Ericsson has also predicted that mobile
phone users will outnumber users of fixed lines in the current year.
Do you see this happening in India too?
Yes, that must be happening worldwide as we
speak, since the average penetration of mobile phones is just 15
per cent. Fixed lines, on the other hand, are nearing saturation.
In India, however, there's huge potential for
both fixed line and mobile growth, given that the ratio is 34:6
(fixed: mobile). I don't think India should skip the fixed-line
route, as that is important for broadband connectivity. Both should
grow in tandem.
Given that China has around 150 million
mobile subscribers, and India just some five million, are you disappointed
with the slow pace of growth that the Indian market has shown?
Not really. The good news is that there are
lesser issues now, and I see the beginning of the hockey stick curve.
By 2005-2006, we expect India to have 50-70 million mobile subscribers.
Fixed line users by then would be 46-48 million.
Finally, there's been plenty of hype around
Bluetooth and its ability to eliminate wires and cables. Do you
see Bluetooth living up to its much-talked-about promise?
If there's been hype around Bluetooth, it has
for the most part been created by the media. Soon we will have Bluetooth
in every mobile device. We have over 200 Bluetooth products in the
market at present, including mobile phones, headsets, printers,
personal digital assistants, and digital cameras, and our customers
include Intel, Samsung, and Philips.
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