THE BT SHORTLIST |
Geometric Software
i-flex Solutions
Bharat Forge
Apollo Hospitals
Divi's Labs
HDFC Bank |
HOT STOCK
Characteristics |
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Size of opportunity should be huge, preferably
global.
»
Competitive edge should be sustainable and scalable
»
Valuations should be on the lower side, implying few have recognized
the potential of the company
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Able to generate high return on equity and also do so on the
back of huge capital intake
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An up-to-scratch management team that's able to execute the
opportunity at hand, via a complex business plan
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Should be practicing good management and governance practices,
more in spirit than in letter. That's essential to attract capital. |
If
anyone told you that board meetings of Infosys Technologies-the
last such gathering took place last fortnight to review Infosys'
first quarter results for 2003-do tend to get acrimonious, you'd
find that a bit difficult to digest. After all, here's a board that
unarguably boasts the most respected management team in India Inc,
and for good measure such heavyweight independent directors as Professor
Marti Subrahmanyam, Philip Yeo, and Senator Larry Pressler, to name
just three.
What on earth could they be disagreeing about?
Well, it so happens that at least at one such board meeting in the
not so recent past, the executive directors on the Infosys board
(Chairman & Chief Mentor N.R. Narayana Murthy, CEO Nandan M.
Nilekani and coo S. Gopalakrishnan) didn't see eye to eye with a
proposal of the independent honchos. The non-exec band was keen
that the Chairman, CEO and coo take a hike in salary. Murthy, Nilekani
and Gopalakrishnan weren't willing! Likewise, when this trio suggested
an increase in the non-executive directors' commissions, the latter
put their foot down. A $25,000 package they felt was fat enough
(it is, isn't it!).
Such feel-good tales of management propriety-told
to BT by one of the Infosys directors-appear unreal and sound unbelievable
against a perceptual backdrop of greedy promoters stuffing their
pockets and independent directors going through the motions before
pocketing chunky commissions. But that's Infosys for you: Constantly
setting new standards and never ceasing to pleasantly surprise.
On the operations front, for instance, a quarter ago punters on
Dalal Street violently ended the tech party by smashing all it stocks
after Infosys' seemingly poor guidance for the year ahead.
SPECIALISED IT SERVICES
Geometric Software |
|
MANU PARPIA, MD, Geometric Software |
For Manu Parpia, size doesn't matter.
not as much as growth and the creation of shareholder value.
The Managing Director of the Rs 64-crore Geometric Software
is clear he can't take on the biggies in the Indian it services
arena (TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL). So he's chosen to specialise-in
the niche area of product lifecycle management (PLM), which
basically involves working with large global system integrators
like IBM, EDS and MatrixOne, who in turn serve the automobile,
aerospace and electronics sectors, which are the largest PLM
users. A high-risk strategy? Perhaps, given that Parpia is putting
all his eggs into the PLM basket. If the PLM market crashes-it
declined last year, which explains 2002-03's single-digit growth-Geometric
could well be history. But then again if Parpia hedges his bets
by foraying into new areas, he would be just another plain vanilla
Indian it services me-too.
Geometric aims to become a $100 million company in four
years-which means an over seven-fold increase since last year.
The stock of the company, which went public in 2000 at a Rs
290 premium, is currently quoting at a little above Rs 400.
As Parpia says: "It's a young stock. We are at a stage
at which there's plenty of promise as well as great expectations.
Now we've got to deliver."
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Three months later, all is well-the guidance,
and the first quarter results. More importantly, Infosys appears
to be handling the pricing pressure successfully, and could soon
achieve its much-avowed goal of getting customers to pay a higher
price for the apparent higher value they're receiving. "What
sets Infosys apart is the tremendous common commitment to absolutely
honest processes of value-creation via impeccable delivery,"
says Dr Omkar Goswami, Independent Director on the Infosys board,
who's also CII's Chief Economist.
In other words, the Infosys' business model
is proving to be sustainable-and will continue to roll. "In
many ways Infosys has been a curse, as it has raised expectations
of investors by appreciating some 200 times (with its market cap
going up from Rs 500 crore just after its IPO in 1993 to Rs 1 lakh
crore at one point in time). There can be only one Infosys,"
points out Raamdeo Agarwal, Joint Managing Director, Motilal Oswal
Securities, a Mumbai-based broking firm.
Yet, if the nineties undisputably belonged
to Infosys-thanks to heady growth rates of over 50 per cent and
mind-boggling market cap appreciation-just as the Ambanis put their
indelible stamp on the eighties by creating world-scale assets and
flagging off the equity cult in India, the decade ahead could witness
the creation of many more Infosys-not necessarily it companies,
but companies with sound business models, huge opportunities (invariably
global), and world-class managements with high standards of governance.
HISTORICAL FAVOURITES |
»
Reliance Industries redefined investor expectations
in the 1980s
»
Infosys Technologies took over the mantle in the 1990s
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For much of the 1990s, the tech wave drove Indian stock-markets
to new highs-stocks of Wipro, Infosys, HCL Tech, Satyam, and
a clutch of lesser known companies soared
»
In the late 1990s and the early part of the 21st century, pharma
became the great white hope of Indian stock-markets-it remains
that to this day
The past three years have seen the return of the smokestacks-
steel, metals, cement scrips |
The Next Infosys
The next big thing won't necessarily be new-age
businesses, either. Indeed, right from given-up-for-dead smokestack
sectors like auto components, to recently-emerged opportunities
like healthcare, it-enabled services and it application software
(yes products!), there's a new buzz of excitement hovering over
India Inc.
Unlike in the past, it isn't as if Indian industry
will be dominated by just one or two high-growth sectors or companies
(it since the mid-nineties, petrochem since the eighties). Today,
there are many more industries that are encashing the opportunities
at hand by garnering a sustainable competitive edge via changes
in mindset, technology implementation and cost-rationalisation,
to name just three initiatives.
Steadily, they're beginning to up their return
on capital even as they display the potential to absorb more capital,
which is necessary to scale up operations. At the same time, they've
put together management teams competent enough to grab the huge
opportunity staring at them by executing complex business plans.
And, not the least, they're practicing ethical standards, being
transparent like never before, and even distancing family members
from day-to-day running and company strategy (and bringing in independent
directors who don't just warm the chairs)-after all that's important
for raising capital from global investors.
APPLICATION SOFTWARE
i-flex Solutions |
|
RAJESH HUKKU, Chairman, i-flex
Solutions |
Post-IPO last June, i-flex solutions
had a market cap of $430 million. Last fortnight, the stock
of the company with the world's No 1 selling banking solution
hit the $1-billion mark. "Our job is to perform and inform,"
says Deepak Ghaisas, CEO (India Operations) and CFO (Global
Operations). i-flex has been riding on the success of Flexcube,
its umbrella suite of banking products, which at last count
had 130 customers across 50 countries. The big question: How
long will Flexcube rule the roost?
25-30 years, says Ghaisas, who's investing 12 per cent of
revenues in R&D in a bid to improve the product's functionality,
adaptability (to changing technology platforms) and scalability
(it can now do 1000 transactions per second as against 100
when the product was flagged off). As for the market, it's
only the surface that's been scratched: Currently it's only
the banking and finance universe that's using such software.
Says Rajesh Hukku, Chairman & Managing Director, i-flex:
"The product-led nature of our business drives non-linearity
into the model in many ways, whether it is the revenue to
manpower equation, or customer relation longevity and value-addition."
In the longer term, i-flex fancies the manufacturing, retail,
services, healthcare and government sectors to use packaged
solutions for their financial transactions. As Ghaisas puts
it, IPR works better than just pr.
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"Indian industry today has many areas of
opportunity today, be it ITEs or pharma synthesis or textiles,"
says Rajeev Gupta, Executive Vice President, DSP Merrill Lynch.
"Infosys showed us the way in their own way. We have to emulate
them by pursuing an appropriate strategy, not necessarily the same
one followed by Infosys," says Manu Parpia, Managing Director,
Geometric Software, which hopes to become a $100 million company
in four-to-five years by carving out its own niche of product lifecycle
management in the it space.
Welcome to the new Infosys'. Let's rephrase
that a bit. "We would like to be the next Microsoft or the
new Siebel," grins Deepak Ghaisas, CEO (India operations) and
CFO (Global Operations), i-flex Solutions, India's most successful
products-driven company. Adds Baba Kalyani, Chairman & Managing
Director, Bharat Forge: "We could do even better than the it
sector. The Next Big Thing will be auto components."
i-flex has done the country a big favour by
making the "Made in India" tag not just respectable, but
saleable. Its Flexcube suite of banking products was the largest
selling of its kind in the world last year.
Then consider the huge opportunity beckoning
Apollo Hospitals in healthcare, a sector in which expenditure is
expected to touch Rs 200,000 crore by 2012, with the private sector
expected to grab three fourths that. As Preetha Reddy, Managing
Director, points out, Apollo has a headstart that will be "difficult
to surpass".
HEALTHCARE
Apollo Hospitals |
|
Preetha Reddy (left), MD & Suneeta
Reddy, Director (Finance), Apollo Hospitals |
If ambition were to be a yardstick
for future expectations, the Reddy sisters of Apollo Hospitals
would be half way there: Suneeta and Preetha Reddy, daughters
of patriarch Dr Prathap C. Reddy want their company to figure
in the Fortune 500 list in five-to-seven years, and be recognised
as a "global healthcare brand". What should help
them get close to that destination is the headstart they enjoy
in India: Apollo is the only national brand. "It is probably
the only healthcare group in the country to have recognised
the need for a professional management," says Preetha
Reddy, Managing Director.
As far as potential goes, this clearly is one market that
can't run out of steam. Suneeta Reddy, Director (Finance),
brandishes a McKinsey study that pegs the Indian healthcare
market at a whopping Rs 78,000 crore, and the global sector
at $3 trillion. That's probably why she's bullish about more
than doubling turnover to Rs 1,000 crore in three years, from
Rs 448.5 crore last year. Close to 60 per cent of revenue
comes from the healthcare supply side, close to 35 per cent
from pharmacy business and 15 per cent from the projects and
managed beds division. "It's a highly-scalable model;
many of our profitable businesses today were just management
thoughts two years ago," says Suneeta. The sky's the
limit is no hollow cliché for Apollo.
-E. Kumar Sharma
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And take a look at the buzz in the pharma industry:
It's not just the high-risk, high-return drug discovery majors that
are capable of striking it big. A number of lesser-known firms are
earning their spurs in the lower-risk but high-return area of custom
synthesis and contract manufacturing, with an eye on the international
generics market. "That's where the bulk of value lies and where
Indian companies enjoy a competitive advantage," says DSP Merrill's
Gupta. Murli K. Divi, CMD of one such pharma firm, Divi's Labs,
estimates the market for outsourcing of chemistry (for global Big
Pharma) at $10 billion (Rs 46,000 crore).
But what's equally significant is that some
of yesterday's downright no-hopers are taking advantage of changing
global dynamics in their respective industries to not just create
value for their shareholders but in the process become genuine Indian
multinationals with a sustainable competitive edge. Take, for instance,
the textiles sector, which analysts estimate could be eyeing a $500-billion
opportunity post-January 2005-that's the projected number for global
textile trade-once textile quotas to the biggest markets, the US
and the European Union, are dismantled. One of the players set to
ride on this opportunity is Arvind Mills, which boasts one of the
world's largest denim capacities, at 90 million metres. "We
are vertically integrating to take advantage of the dismantling
of quotas," says Jayesh Shah, Director (Finance). Arvind, which
hopes to double sales and treble profits in five-to-six years, has
got into the value-added garments sector. Reason: fabric is a capital
intensive business where a rupee of investment results in just Re
0.7 of turnover. However, in garments, Re 1 translates into Rs 10
of turnover.
BANKING
HDFC Bank |
|
ADITYA PURI, MD, HDFC Bank |
The frenzy in banking stocks
that resulted in even the heavily NPA-laden cats and dogs
joining the party, may have abated slightly, but the flavour
of HDFC Bank isn't seasonal. After all, there aren't too many
banks in India that have less than 2 per cent of loans that
are non-performing. The average for Indian banks is comfortably
in double digits. Growth has also been rapid, with retail
accounts growing at 50 per cent annually and profits at least
30 per cent over the past five years.
Analysts don't see why the HDFC Bank can't continue growing
at this fast pace for at least the next two years. The retail
surge too shows little signs of flagging, and after recently
getting into a cross-selling alliance with HDFC, Managing
Director Aditya Puri has plugged one of the few glaring gaps
that existed in the retail portfolio: housing finance.
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AUTO COMPONENTS
Bharat forge |
|
BABA KALYANI, MD, Bharat Forge |
To dub a company that's been around
since the sixties as the next big thing in India Inc may sound
daft, but then the Rs 690-crore Bharat Forge has just begun
knocking at the doors of a billion-dollar opportunity. In the
current year alone, some 15-odd auto and tier-1 ancillary majors
will procure some $1.5 billion worth of components from India.
For Bharat Forge, which supplies engines and suspension
components to the likes of Daimler Chrysler, Caterpillar-Perkins,
Renault, Mercedes and Volvo, the target is to make exports
account for half of 2005's sales. Last year, overseas sales
contributed 40 per cent to revenues, up from just 7 per cent
in 1995. "Our journey towards being a truly global enterprise
has only just begun," says Baba Kalyani, Managing Director,
Bharat Forge.
Clearly, like many other Indian auto components companies,
Kalyani is counting on the dual advantage of low cost and
quality engineering skills to move into the top league of
Indian companies. By trimming costs, turning to technically-skilled
manpower- "replacing musclepower with brainpower,"
as Kalyani puts it-and stretching its wings globally, Bharat
Forge is now ready to make that big leap.
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Despite Arvind's turnaround- interest costs
have come down from Rs 360 crore to Rs 150 crore in the last two
years, a consolidated loss of Rs 100 crore (including subsidiaries)
has turned into a Rs 107 crore profit, and market cap has climbed
10-fold in a year-you'd be really sticking your neck out to tout
this company as one of the next big things of India Inc. Perhaps
one of the many garment exporters from Tirupur could command that
sobriquet once it goes public. But another "old economy"
stalwart, the 40-something-year old Bharat Forge could well be the
horse to back. Soon, half of the company's sales will come from
exports, thereby giving the company global scale as well as reducing
the risk of its business model. The company has 24 international
customers, including such names as DaimlerChrysler, Volvo, Renault,
Honda, Cummins and Toyota. "By 2009-10, we will be a significantly
different company, a truly global enterprise," says Baba Kalyani.
Unlike the previous decades, today's growth-oriented
companies also follow good governance practices, less in letter
and more in spirit. Ghaisas of i-flex, who lectures to BSE brokers
on corporate governance on weekends, recollects why he decided to
bring down his daily sales outstanding (DSO) to 80 days from 158
days: Investors and analysts weren't comfortable with the rather
high DSO. Geometric's Parpia will proudly tell you that his company
was the first to issue a "profit warning" when the company
slipped into the red in the September 2000 quarter. Arvind Mills
has reconfigured its board to bring in stalwarts like Jerry Rao,
Deepak Satwalekar and Rama Bijapurkar (the last two named are also
on Infosys board) as independent directors, even as the number of
family members has been whittled down from four to two. At Bharat
Forge Baba Kalyani is the only family member on the board.
Clearly, the horizon never looked as clear
and bright for India Inc. The opportunities are there for the taking,
at least for the few that have restructured operations to become
efficient enough to ride the boom. Some of the names mentioned in
this story may never make it as the next big things of India Inc,
but they're representative of the growth potential that exits in
the sectors they operate in. If there are management teams good
enough to execute complex business plans within these sectors, and
raise capital on the back of an impeccable record in terms of ethics,
integrity and transparency, they'd be successful in building businesses
that are global, sustainable and one of their kind. Like Infosys.
additional reporting by E.
Kumar Sharma
CONTRACT PHARMA MANUFACTURING
Divi's Labs |
|
MURALI K. DIVI, CMD, Divi's Labs |
Once you are past the pages
detailing the stories of the Dr Reddy's and the Ranbaxys in
the book of Indian pharma- somewhere towards the middle of
the tome-you will come across some lesser-known names. Like
Divi's Laboratories. Divi's what? Well, if you are familiar
with the goings-on on Dalal Street, you would have heard of
this stock's spectacular rise since it went public earlier
in the year. From a listing price of Rs 140, Divi's has surged
past the Rs 500-mark. And there's little sign of the stock
taking a breather. Divi's has positioned itself in the high-potential
space of custom synthesis and contract manufacturing. "We
are positioned to have long-term relationships with MNCs in
drug discovery and development as we can meet their needs
from the lab-scale needs to pilot project requirements and
commercial manufacture once a product is launched," explains
Murali K. Divi, the bearded, long-haired 51-year-old Chairman
& Managing Director, a former associate of Dr K. Anji
Reddy.
Divi's gambit is a lower-risk strategy than drug discovery,
yet promising returns that will assure non-incremental growth.
And he's got it all worked out. The cost to create a capacity
in India, he says, is a tenth that of Europe and the US. He
put up his plant near Hyderabad in nine months against the
norm of three years. "The outsourcing of chemistry is
an over $10-billion market." Look out for Divi- and many
other pharma companies that are eyeing that pie.
-E. Kumar Sharma
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