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Revisiting the tech bust: The
great meltdown of 2000 took down with it the get-rich-quick
dreams--and the life savings--of a whole generation of the
American middle class
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BACK
OF THE BOOK
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The
plot: middle-aged and well-known film critic faces divorce and the
loss of a seven-room Manhattan apartment that he owns with his wife.
Desperate to buy out his wife's share, he plays the stockmarket,
trying to ride the New Economy bubble. His objective: make a million
dollars so that the apartment doesn't need to be sold. He invests
heavily in tech stocks, which are the flavour of the moment. The
bubble bursts and he ends up losing money instead of making any.
In American Sucker, David Denby, staff writer
and film critic for The New Yorker, chronicles his brief but disastrous
fling with the stockmarket in 2000, at the end of the last boom.
Driven by the urge to make money and make it fast, Denby, a relative
newbie in the stockmarket becomes a CNBC junkie. He becomes a friend
of Henry Blodget, the now-disgraced dot-com stock messiah, and Sam
Waksal, the biotech entrepreneur (who was later convicted on charges
of insider trading). What's more, he seeks out the prophets of the
New Economy and attends tech conferences by prominent stalwarts
of the period, including George Gilder. Needless to add, he also
invests heavily in tech stocks, especially those that were driving
the Nasdaq crazy in those heady days.
But Denby's stockmarket
foray was doomed. Unfortunately, Denby charged into the market naively
like a novice. For one, his timing was all wrong: he entered the
market at the fag end of the boom, or rather, at the beginning of
the bust. Second, like many investors of the period, he ignored
the fundamentals and went with the hype. Writes Denby: "...as
the market soared, you could feel it. You would have to be insensitive
not to feel it. All around, in the suddenly resplendent corporate
pomp of once-dreary San Jose in Silicon Valley, in the crisp linen
and sparkle of a downtown Manhattan restaurant at lunch-time, in
the fattened pages of new and brazenly successful Internet magazines
like the Industry Standard-in all these places and many more, you
could sense the thrilling, oxygen-rich happiness of wealth being
created overnight."
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AMERICAN SUCKER
By David Denby
Little Brown
Little, Brown & Co.
PP 338
Price: Rs 1,150
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Like a film with a bad plot, American Sucker
lacks punch. The absence of suspense is one reason. Denby's war-chest
of $325,000 (savings plus an inheritance from his mother) and his
portfolio that was 80 per cent weighted in favour of tech stocks
spell disaster from the word go. Nor is his book an enlightening
account of the stockmarket and short-lived euphoria about the New
Economy in the late 1990s.
Instead, Denby chronicles what happens to him-a
middle-aged man whose 18-year marriage falls apart. We get to know
about his obsession with pornography via the internet, his dependence
on anti-depressants and other mood lifting drugs; he muses on about
movie reviews, consumerism and the pursuit of money. Not exactly
scintillating fare, unless you really care about the author and
want to indulge him.
Yet American Sucker is written well and Denby
doesn't shy away from doses of self-deprecation. If you condone
what seems to be the author's attempt to write for therapeutic reasons,
the book has humour and derives much from Denby's obvious eclectic
knowledge. To Denby's credit, although he gets very personal about
his own emotions following the divorce, he manages to balance it
well by keeping it discreet and not in-your-face. Finally, although
Denby tried to make a million but ended up losing money, he probably
had the last laugh by writing a book about that experience. A book
that people will pay to read!
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IN DEFENSE OF GLOBALIZATION
By Jagdish Bhagwati
Oxford University Press
PP: 308
Price: Rs 445
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Is globalisation
good? It makes the world wealthier, but does it pass the test of
compassion? Does it satisfy the moral imperative fleshed out so
imaginatively in the globe-wowing Diesel jeans ad campaign of 2001:
what policy would the powerful 'haves' have the powerless 'have-nots'
pursue if they were to switch places?
Thought experiments call for thought. In this
book, Columbia University's Jagdish Bhagwati brings together his
erudition and gentle wit to the debate raging over the impact of
economic globalisation on poverty, women's rights, democracy, wages,
the environment and much else. In his response to the agitation
against globalisation, the professor deftly ignores those who're
implacably hostile to the phenomenon, opting instead to address
the economically naïve, as most otherwise open-minded critics
are, to make his point. Economic openness and a social conscience
are not mutually exclusive. Not just that, globalisation is good;
it is precisely what the "immiserized" need to escape
their misery. His conclusion: "Reason and analysis require
that we abandon the conviction that globalisation lacks a human
face, an assertion that is tantamount to a false alarm, and embrace
the view that it has one."
Bhagwati isn't a kick-the-door-in advocate
of barrier busting, and he takes the opportunity to restate his
support for gentle reforms-calibrated by market specifics. This
would boost his good-guy credentials among those already endeared
by his concern for gender equality (and digressions on revelations
from O.J. Simpson's trial and V.S. Naipaul's literature). But farmers
fuming about grossly oversubsidised farming in the West may not
be equally receptive to this book. But then again, Bhagwati defines
economic globalisation broadly, and the compassion test isn't about
the efficiency of its current instruments. It's about how we want
the world to evolve.
-Aresh Shirali
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YIELD CURVE
By Moorad Choudhry
John Wiley & Sons
PP: 359
Price: Rs 2,574
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You are probably
no stranger to the term 'yield curve', constant reader. As a magazine
that features a section on investing, it is impossible for too many
issues of Business Today to go by without using the term. The yield
curve is simply the yield (read: return) on debt over time. Given
that long-term interest rates are usually higher than short-term
ones (the risk is greater when the investing horizon is longer),
most yield curves slope upwards. Debt-market analysts and fund managers
swear by yield curves. So, it isn't altogether surprising that Moorad
Choudhry, the head of treasury at KBC Financial Products, a London-based
trading house should choose to write a book on the holy curve. The
book is, as one would expect it to be, an academic's delight, and
provides details (arithmetic-heavy ones, we should add) on the various
shapes of yield curves, fitting a curve and modelling one, replete
with examples, work-it-out-yourself numerics, and case studies.
However, treasury-manager that he is, Choudhry cannot help but provide
some insight on how analysts can use yield curves (or read them)
to create strategies focussed on delivering profit. Should you be
in the business of making money from bonds, we cannot recommend
a better book.
-R. Sukumar
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