Ever driven with your gaze fixed to a rear-view mirror? There are two good reasons not to, ever. First, the past may have no more than a passing relevance to what's ahead. And second, some mirrors-such as convex and concave types-are designed to create a reality distortion field to deliver the designer's desired perceptions.

There are also two good reasons to suspend the many joys of Feel Good living that some of us have grown accustomed to, and put a knuckle to one's chin for a good think. First, statisticians are fond of mirrors. Second, no 'superpower' has ever been a superpower for long without a widespread, dispassionate and active interest in the "truth, whole truth and nothing but the truth", to quote the testimonial oath used in the US, under law.

The latest statistic glittering forth in glory from India's Central Statistical Office (CSO) is '10.4 per cent'. The very number of digits-two-before the decimal gives it an incandescent glow. This, folks, is the economic growth rate logged by the country for the third quarter of the financial year 2003-04, a figure that's the world's highest for the period. India, people, has become the world's fastest growing economy!

The world's fastest...

Has the cheering faded slightly? Good. For those who care to listen, it's time for details. The figure represents an acceleration from the second quarter's already pacy 8.4 per cent, which in itself was a pep-up from the first quarter's 5.4 per cent. Agriculture gave the third quarter its big boost, up a staggering 16.9 per cent, while the industrial sector delivered a robust 7.4 per cent and the ever-dependable services sector, 7.3 per cent. An all-round economic performance, then, after a long while. Impressive, it is.

Those were the details. Now for reflections of another sort. First, does the '10.4 per cent' figure tell us much about the future? And second, does it really make India the world's speed champ?

No, and no again. This is because of an inconvenient bit of information that doesn't always find place amongst all the glowing numbers. The quarterly growth figures are calculated on a year-on-year basis, and the third quarter of 2002-03 saw India's agricultural sector scorched into a 9.8 per cent decline by a devastating drought. The year was so miserable that any 'normal' back-to-trend performance would register as a bumper year. A good monsoon in 2003 has ensured just that, and everyone is relieved. But relief is relief; it's no reason to get overexcited. The peculiar succession of circumstances means that the entire episode (the tragedy of 2002 followed by the normalisation of 2003) is a blip. A gigantic blip-blown way out of proportion to the fact it is supposed to represent.

Anyhow, the blip is in the past now, and it's best to adopt an unbiased view, thinking ahead. The base for calculations having expanded this year, it is highly unlikely that the country will turn out another pacy performance in 2004-05. While services could maintain a steady clip, the erratic industrial sector shows little evidence of having achieved a higher growth trajectory. Anyone entertaining visions of two-digit economic growth towards quick superpowerhood would be disappointed.

Of course, that's not to say that genuine economic acceleration is impossible. Intelligent reforms-particularly in agriculture-could bring about a transformation, and could well proceed without any convulsions if pursued in a manner sensitive to the needs and dreams of the country's people at large.

As of now, however, the most touching thing highlighted by the attempted light-and-mirrors show is how much farther the country needs to go. To be frank, what matters is not quarterly but average annual performance over the long term-and the second half of the post-1991 reforms period has plainly failed to keep up the growth of the first half. If that's not bad enough, it's cold comfort seeing an entire economy's destiny turn on some mysterious atmospheric forces. Nor is it uplifting to see such muffled appreciation of the truth in a country that once shook up the World Order with that ideal, and little else.