It
is ironic that the original team of reformists of 1991-which virtually
did away with the licence-permit Raj, opened up the Indian economy
and moved it away from its obsession with the public sector-should
now seek to resurrect the very institution that epitomised that
era: the Planning Commission. It was the quartet of Prime Minister
Narasimha Rao, Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, Commerce Minister
Palaniappan Chidambaram, and Economic Affairs Secretary in the Finance
Ministry, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, that manoeuvred India out of the
crisis of 1991 and started the process of liberalisation of the
Indian economy.
Today, the original reformers are back (all
except Rao). Only, the roles and the script are different. Dr Singh
is in the pm's chair, Chidambaram is the Finance Minister and Ahluwalia
the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, and their collective
brief: to give the reforms a 'human' face. Along with this shift
in emphasis has come a drive to make over old institutions-such
as the Planning Commission-albeit with an altogether different charter
than before.
MONTEK'S A-Team
Change is clearly in the air at
the Planning Commission. |
PROF.
ABHIJIT SEN: Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal
Nehru University. Was Chairman, High Level Committee on Long
Term Grain Policy and Chairman, Commission for Agricultural
Costs and Prices.
DR. BHALCHANDRA MUNGEKAR: An
agricultural economist by profession, he is currently the
Vice-Chancellor, University of Mumbai. He is also the Founder-President
of Dr Ambedkar Institute of Social and Economic Change.
DR.
KIRIT S. PARIKH: Founder-Director of Indira Gandhi
Institute of Development Research and Editor of the India
Development Report, which assesses India's development and
policy options.
PROF. V.L. CHOPRA: An
agricultural scientist, he is credited with developing high-yielding
varieties of mustard seed. He is currently Chancellor of Central
Agricultural University, Imphal.
SYEDA
SAIYIDAIN HAMEED: An activist and the only woman
member of the panel, she was the Founder-Member of the Muslim
Women's Forum and is also a Founder-Trustee of the Centre
for Dialogue and Reconciliation.
ANWARUL HODA: A former
bureaucrat with the Commerce Ministry, he was the Deputy Director-General
of WTO from January 1995 to April 1999. Currently, he is Professor
at the Indian Council for Research in International Economic
Relations (ICRIER).
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The Turnaround Man
Ordinarily, reviving an institution such as
the Planning Commission would have been the best way to send a chill
down the spine of the market. But the markets aren't running scared.
It is perhaps because of the knowledge that under Ahluwalia, the
Planning Commission will be a different animal altogether.
The reasons for this are quite clear. For,
while it was Singh (he was then Secretary, Economic Affairs), who
brought Ahluwalia to India in 1979 as an advisor to the Finance
Ministry, it fell to Chidambaram to elevate him to the high pedestal
he now occupies in this country's economic establishment. It was
the Chidambaram-Ahluwalia combine that scripted the blockbuster
budget of 1997-98-a landmark event that has remained the envy of
all budget-makers since. Accolades apart, Ahluwalia's fortunes had
been on an EBB ever since the blame game for Yashwant Sinha's disastrous
budget of 1998-99 began. Ahluwalia became the target of the government's
critics-both inside the NDA and those out of it. Soon after, he
found himself shunted to an almost-defunct Yojana Bhawan. From where
he moved on to the IMF as the Director of its Independent Evaluation
Office.
Proximity to the powers that be is, however,
not the only reason behind Ahluwalia's dramatic comeback. Surjit
S. Bhalla, the Managing Director of Oxus Research and Investments,
insists that Ahluwalia's return has more to do with the fact that
he is simply the best man available for the job. Bhalla should know.
He has seen Ahluwalia at work for the last 30 years. Concurs a former
colleague in the Planning Commission: "He is one of the finest
minds in the country and capable of handling a challenge of precisely
this sort because of his superb people skills.''
And challenges there are aplenty. For the 61-year-old
economist with a doctorate from Oxford University, the biggest one
is the makeover of the five-decade-old Planning Commission-conceived
originally as the apex resource-allocating body in a socialistic
economy, a task that has since been handed over to market forces-and
making it relevant in today's globalised, liberalised world.
INTERVIEW
"I Think That 7 Per Cent Growth Is
Possible'' |
How
difficult do you think is turning NCMP into a reality given
the pressures of coalition politics?
As far as economic policy is concerned, coalition government
or not, it's never easy to strike a balance between the different
interests that are involved. It is not one of those black-and-white
situations. It's one of those shades-of-grey kinds of situations.
Can't you directly go the panchayats
to ensure that funds actually reach the desired people?
I don't think that we can go directly to the states because
the districts have their own problems. They don't have their
own independent budgetary set-up; the Constitution does not
provide a way to give grants directly. So that direct transfer
of funds to local bodies has not been established.
How difficult is monitoring the
funding?
It is difficult both ways. The Centre doesn't and shouldn't
have a huge army of people monitoring projects. What happens
is that the state administration issues utilisation certificates.
The issue is whether the system is really working. My perception
is that it isn't and that is because the system is so complex.
So should panchayats get more powers?
In my view, that is essential. That part is not controversial
either. Everybody agrees with that. The question is how to
do that within the given constraints.
Is a 7 per cent growth rate possible?
I think that a 7 per cent growth is possible. But that can
only happen if many of the constraints currently affecting
the economy are done away with. The National Common Minimum
Programme says that all constraints on incomes of farmers
will be removed. But there are too many constraints that limit
the growth of income of farmers-constraints on movements of
crops, marketing etc.
When you leave the Planning Commission,
what kind of impression would you like to leave behind you?
I would like to be remembered for pushing a set of policies
that helped in achieving the growth targets, that helped in
bringing service efficiency in the social sector, which is
where public money goes, and the person who made private-public
partnership feasible.
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The Assignment
Ahluwalia's newest assignment has created misgivings
in many quarters. Yet for Ahluwalia, the chance to help in the makeover
of Yojana Bhawan was "too exciting an offer to let go''. His
answer to what the Commission would do in a largely market economy:
strategic planning for the long-term, monitoring the use of funds,
reconciling the various demands, and creating a synergy among the
ministries. These, he points out, are functions that don't fall
under the purview of any ministry and need to be performed by a
body such as the Planning Commission. As Ahluwalia points out: "You
can scrap the Commission, but you still need some agency to carry
out these functions.''
More than anything else, what Ahluwalia is
preoccupied with these days is prioritising the allocation of Rs
10,000 crore that has been earmarked in the Budget for the various
social sector schemes and the mid-term review of the Tenth Five-Year
Plan. He sees the 7-8 per cent growth rate as an imperative if the
goals mentioned in the United Progressive Alliance government's
Common Minimum Programme (CMP) are to be met.
The Road Ahead
While the tasks ahead of the Planning Commission's
Deputy Chairman are more or less clearly cut out, how he will go
about accomplishing them isn't. He is still grappling with the problem
of finding a "proper delivery mechanism'' for funds. The problem
is a simple one. While routing funds through state governments has
been a recipe for their misuse, the direct transfer of funds to
the panchayats-the most effective implementation mechanism-runs
into Constitutional hurdles. Says Ahluwalia: "I don't have
a solution at the moment, but it is a very important issue."
He is clear about one thing, though: if efficiency in the delivery
mechanism is to be brought about, there must be a sense of involvement,
ownership and accountability at the bottom level.
To achieve the social goals spelt out in the
CMP, he is leaving no stones unturned. Apart from his new team (See
Montek's A-Team)-each member of which has been assigned a specific
area-he has also constituted seven task forces to look into a host
of issues. Ahluwalia also plans to seek inputs from outsiders-professionals,
industry heads, and NGOs-for the mid-term review: "We take
what others feel, and we take what the government thinks, and then
we confront these views to find ways to set policies right.''
But can he pull it off? Will he be able to
come up with a policy framework that not only works but is also
taken seriously by the powers-that-be. After all, in its 54 years
of existence, the Commission can hardly claim to have made even
half-a-dozen contributions that can be considered seminal. As one
critic points out, the Planning Commission, despite being the premier
think-tank of the government, has yet to come out with any major
alternate plan for poverty removal, developing better delivery systems
for the poor, or an alternate plan to create better infrastructure.
"Even the idea of the National Highway Development Project
came from the Prime Minister's Office and the Kelkar Task Force
on Direct and Indirect Taxes emanated from the Finance Ministry."
Given this history, the odds would seem stacked against him. Then
again, as economist Bhalla points out: "If Montek cannot turn
around the Planning Commission, nobody can. Then, it would be time
to give it a decent burial.''
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