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DEC 19, 2004
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Cities On The Edge
Favoured business destinations Gurgaon, Bangalore, Chennai, Pune and Hyderabad could become, thanks to poor infrastructure, victims of their own success. Read in-depth articles on each city. Plus personalised travel logs. Only at www.business-today.com.


Moving On
Diluting stake in GECIS was like a child growing up and leaving home, feels Scott R. Bayman, President and CEO of GE India. In an exclusive interview with BT, he speaks his mind on a wide range of issues.

More Net Specials
Business Today,  December 5, 2004
 
 
Stock For 2005
As the calendar year draws to a close, long-range investors should start thinking of stocks for 2005.
OTHER RELATED STORIES
Investing In Mutual Funds
Sectoral Savvy

It's marked on the calendar: November 17, 2004. This was the day that India's bellwether stock index, the BSE Sensex, zipped past the magical 6,000 mark only for the second time in its history with any measure of staying power. By now, index veterans were ready to call a bull a bull, and even see in Sensex 6,000 an affirmation from the market in the leadership of the Manmohan Singh-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

Sensex numbers, however, don't make stock investing any easier for the lay investor. With the Sensex setting new records, is there much scope for money to be made? More importantly, with so many stocks at their 52-week highs (and that too after an amazing 52 weeks), what are the stocks set to rise still further?

Not for the first time, BT sticks its neck out-to pick stocks that are likely to sizzle in 2005. The list, compiled with the help of analysts, investment bankers and stockbrokers, offers quite a heady mix of stocks to track (and bet on) over the next 12 months or so.

Gujarat Ambuja

With so much infrastructure activity, and with housing on a strong rebound, cement companies are ascending the boom cycle. Gujarat Ambuja, with its advantages of scale and efficiency, is among the biggest gainers. The booming North and West markets are well within the reach of its factories in Gujarat. Also, watch export revenues. It's doing well in West Asia, where surging demand has taken cement to nearly $45 (Rs 2,025) per tonne. The stock has already shot up sharply, but a Mumbai-based analyst expects it to touch Rs 425 by the middle of 2005.

ACC

Also part of the cement story. "ACC's profitability is likely to be on the upswing driven by the strength in prices and volume growth," says Amitabh Chakraborty, VP and Head of Research (Private Client Group), Kotak Securities. "Additionally," he adds, "scope for revenue expansion through acquisitions points towards more valuation gains, making the stock a good bet for 2005.'' Its VRS scheme has cut the wage bill, and its acquisition of Orissa-based IDCOL Cements (at just Rs 180 crore) expands its presence in the east. Its other advantage: captive power. The stock could touch Rs 320 next year.

BHEL

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (BHEL), India's largest engineering firm, boasts of market leadership in the power sector, having put up two-thirds of India's thermal power capacity. Now, the loosening of government control over this sector should boost its fortunes as new power plants get cracking. The infrastructure build-up has also packed its order books (it bagged orders worth Rs 8,055 crore in the second quarter of 2003-04 alone). The bottom line, meanwhile, will get help from operational efficiency.

ONGC

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) remains a good pick even now. Keen followers of international developments (oil-related to a large extent) are bullish on it. "The fundamental shift in global crude prices from the earlier $28-30 (Rs 1,260-1,350) to $38-40 (Rs 1,710-1,800) a barrel (sweet Brent crude) means that ONGC will earn much more by selling its crude," elaborates Chakraborty of Kotak Securities. Moreover, once the government raises gas prices-it will have to at some point, they're currently at 40 per cent of the international level-its realisation will go up sharply. The bold gambit with global oilfields (and assets) is also worth tracking. Its bid for Russia-based Yukos' assets, for example. It could hit Rs 900 early next year, contends Chakraborty.

SBI

State Bank of India (SBI) is still India's pre-eminent bank in terms of business and presence (its deposit size: over Rs 3,37,684 crore). The success of its recent diversification projects-insurance has attracted much attention-makes it a clear winner for 2005. Ramdeo Agarwal, MD, Motilal Oswal Securities, believes that the bank is well poised to make the most of the personal loan boom. Its performance has been getting better, and overseas acquisitions will only add to the lustre. It could reach Rs 610 next year.

SCI

Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) has been recommended as an immediate buy; it could do your portfolio good as a 2005 pick as well. The shipping upsurge will continue, even as the hardening of global freight rates over the last eight quarters (thanks to China's thirst for oil, among other factors) spells good margins. The company is expanding its tanker fleet and replacing its single-hull vessels. Moreover, its venture into LNG transportation, typically contracted for decades together, could pay off too, according to Agarwal of Motilal Oswal Securities.

Century Textiles

After a disappointing 2003-04, the Indian textiles industry is all set for global trade in 2005, when quota restrictions on exports to the US, EU and Canada will be lifted. In a best-player-wins market, India's share of those markets is expected to shoot up. Century Textiles, an AV Birla Group company, is a dominant player in such synthetic fabrics as polyester, rayon, linen and Lycra blends. West Asia, South America and Australia, apart from the US, are already big markets for Century, and 2005 should see it thrive.

Torrent Pharmaceuticals

Torrent is a good pick because of how it is placed to deal with the new patent regime (applicable to products) to come into force in 2005, according to Jigar Shah, head of research, K.R. Choksey Shares & Securities. Torrent sells anti-diabetic, cardiology, neurology and other drugs, and invests a tenth of revenue in R&D. Its big hope: a deal with Novartis Pharma AG of Switzerland to sell a drug-if it comes through-to treat heart diseases and vascular complications related to diabetes. It plans a $50 million (Rs 225 crore) ADR issue. Analysts see the price hitting Rs 750 next year.

Dynamatic Technology

This mid-cap firm sells engineering products to automobile, aerospace, agricultural and construction companies, and has a sound reputation for hydraulic equipment. It enjoys a near monopoly in hydraulic gear pumps, procured by nearly all of India's tractor makers. It also supplies components to Hyundai Motors and to the Indian Army's Vikrant tank. It's the agricultural demand, however, which excites analysts who're bullish on it. Its stock is expected to soar, perhaps even reach Rs 400 or thereabouts by next year.

 

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