It's
marked on the calendar: November 17, 2004. This was the day that
India's bellwether stock index, the BSE Sensex, zipped past the
magical 6,000 mark only for the second time in its history with
any measure of staying power. By now, index veterans were ready
to call a bull a bull, and even see in Sensex 6,000 an affirmation
from the market in the leadership of the Manmohan Singh-led United
Progressive Alliance (UPA).
Sensex numbers, however, don't make stock investing
any easier for the lay investor. With the Sensex setting new records,
is there much scope for money to be made? More importantly, with
so many stocks at their 52-week highs (and that too after an amazing
52 weeks), what are the stocks set to rise still further?
Not for the first time, BT sticks its neck
out-to pick stocks that are likely to sizzle in 2005. The list,
compiled with the help of analysts, investment bankers and stockbrokers,
offers quite a heady mix of stocks to track (and bet on) over the
next 12 months or so.
Gujarat Ambuja
With so much infrastructure activity, and with
housing on a strong rebound, cement companies are ascending the
boom cycle. Gujarat Ambuja, with its advantages of scale and efficiency,
is among the biggest gainers. The booming North and West markets
are well within the reach of its factories in Gujarat. Also, watch
export revenues. It's doing well in West Asia, where surging demand
has taken cement to nearly $45 (Rs 2,025) per tonne. The stock has
already shot up sharply, but a Mumbai-based analyst expects it to
touch Rs 425 by the middle of 2005.
ACC
Also part of the cement story. "ACC's
profitability is likely to be on the upswing driven by the strength
in prices and volume growth," says Amitabh Chakraborty, VP
and Head of Research (Private Client Group), Kotak Securities. "Additionally,"
he adds, "scope for revenue expansion through acquisitions
points towards more valuation gains, making the stock a good bet
for 2005.'' Its VRS scheme has cut the wage bill, and its acquisition
of Orissa-based IDCOL Cements (at just Rs 180 crore) expands its
presence in the east. Its other advantage: captive power. The stock
could touch Rs 320 next year.
BHEL
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (BHEL), India's
largest engineering firm, boasts of market leadership in the power
sector, having put up two-thirds of India's thermal power capacity.
Now, the loosening of government control over this sector should
boost its fortunes as new power plants get cracking. The infrastructure
build-up has also packed its order books (it bagged orders worth
Rs 8,055 crore in the second quarter of 2003-04 alone). The bottom
line, meanwhile, will get help from operational efficiency.
ONGC
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) remains
a good pick even now. Keen followers of international developments
(oil-related to a large extent) are bullish on it. "The fundamental
shift in global crude prices from the earlier $28-30 (Rs 1,260-1,350)
to $38-40 (Rs 1,710-1,800) a barrel (sweet Brent crude) means that
ONGC will earn much more by selling its crude," elaborates
Chakraborty of Kotak Securities. Moreover, once the government raises
gas prices-it will have to at some point, they're currently at 40
per cent of the international level-its realisation will go up sharply.
The bold gambit with global oilfields (and assets) is also worth
tracking. Its bid for Russia-based Yukos' assets, for example. It
could hit Rs 900 early next year, contends Chakraborty.
SBI
State Bank of India (SBI) is still India's
pre-eminent bank in terms of business and presence (its deposit
size: over Rs 3,37,684 crore). The success of its recent diversification
projects-insurance has attracted much attention-makes it a clear
winner for 2005. Ramdeo Agarwal, MD, Motilal Oswal Securities, believes
that the bank is well poised to make the most of the personal loan
boom. Its performance has been getting better, and overseas acquisitions
will only add to the lustre. It could reach Rs 610 next year.
SCI
Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) has been
recommended as an immediate buy; it could do your portfolio good
as a 2005 pick as well. The shipping upsurge will continue, even
as the hardening of global freight rates over the last eight quarters
(thanks to China's thirst for oil, among other factors) spells good
margins. The company is expanding its tanker fleet and replacing
its single-hull vessels. Moreover, its venture into LNG transportation,
typically contracted for decades together, could pay off too, according
to Agarwal of Motilal Oswal Securities.
Century Textiles
After a disappointing 2003-04, the Indian textiles
industry is all set for global trade in 2005, when quota restrictions
on exports to the US, EU and Canada will be lifted. In a best-player-wins
market, India's share of those markets is expected to shoot up.
Century Textiles, an AV Birla Group company, is a dominant player
in such synthetic fabrics as polyester, rayon, linen and Lycra blends.
West Asia, South America and Australia, apart from the US, are already
big markets for Century, and 2005 should see it thrive.
Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Torrent is a good pick because of how it is
placed to deal with the new patent regime (applicable to products)
to come into force in 2005, according to Jigar Shah, head of research,
K.R. Choksey Shares & Securities. Torrent sells anti-diabetic,
cardiology, neurology and other drugs, and invests a tenth of revenue
in R&D. Its big hope: a deal with Novartis Pharma AG of Switzerland
to sell a drug-if it comes through-to treat heart diseases and vascular
complications related to diabetes. It plans a $50 million (Rs 225
crore) ADR issue. Analysts see the price hitting Rs 750 next year.
Dynamatic Technology
This mid-cap firm sells engineering products
to automobile, aerospace, agricultural and construction companies,
and has a sound reputation for hydraulic equipment. It enjoys a
near monopoly in hydraulic gear pumps, procured by nearly all of
India's tractor makers. It also supplies components to Hyundai Motors
and to the Indian Army's Vikrant tank. It's the agricultural demand,
however, which excites analysts who're bullish on it. Its stock
is expected to soar, perhaps even reach Rs 400 or thereabouts by
next year.
|