CM Bhattacharjee: Facing a tough match

Assembly elections in West Bengal are still a few months away. And most people expect the ruling Left Front to return to power with a thumping majority. Yawn! So why is Business Today, a business magazine, carrying this report? Because of a new twist in this tale. It's still only a small twist; but it has the potential to snowball into something massive; and if it does, it can have far-reaching consequences for the country's economy and politics (see The Scenarios).

The "twist" answers to the name of K.J. Rao. He's an observer appointed by the Election Commission (EC)-the 63-year-old Rao joined the EC as an assistant in 1966 and retired as Secretary in 2002; he was sent as observer for the us presidential election in 2002 and the Afghanistan election in 2004-to oversee the election process in West Bengal. Rao's claim to fame: he's a maverick who ensured free and fair polls in Bihar in 2005. The expectation: if he can do the same in Bengal, the Reds might find it difficult to continue their lease on Writers' Buildings.

The opening chapters of the story have gone according to script. Rao and his team of 18 observers landed in Kolkata on January 8; their brief: check out the process of revising electoral rolls in West Bengal. At Phulia in Nadia district, 45 km from Kolkata, Rao asked some local people who surrounded his car if they faced problems casting their votes. The response was a loud "yes". Had they come across bogus voters (even voters from across the border) standing in queue outside polling booths? The chorus was again in the affirmative. Satisfied, Rao got off his car for a house-to-house survey. By the end of the day, he had struck off dozens of false voters from the electoral rolls. Elsewhere, in 18 other districts, the other EC observers were doing more of the same. By the end of their weeklong tour of the state, they found that the Left Front government had issued 8.15 crore ration cards. Nothing wrong with that, except that West Bengal has a total population of only 8.02 crore! "There's a huge problem here. There are some districts which require more time and attention. We will have to look more deeply into the matter. And if the EC so desires, I'm ready to oversee the elections in West Bengal. But that's a call that EC will have to take," says Rao. And just before leaving for Delhi, he tells mediapersons: "We will consider bringing in presiding officers from outside the state and post polling officers outside booths for stringent checking of photo identity cards and other documents." That he meant business became evident when the EC showcaused 25 state government officials for negligence in dealing with electoral roll-related applications and complaints. The Congress, the Trinamul Congress and the BJP are delighted. "The EC observers have only vindicated what we have been saying for years. We hope the EC actually does bring in presiding officers and other officials from outside as that's the only way of ensuring free and fair elections here," says Pankaj Banerjee, leader of the Trinamul Congress legislative party.

Officially, the Left Front has decided to brazen it out. Its Chairman Biman Bose, who is also a member of the CPI(M) politburo, admits the existence of bogus voters, but blames the Opposition for this. "There are many false voters bogus electoral id cards and fake ration cards in the state. The EC should take steps to find out who is behind these; this is tarnishing the image of the state."

That looks fishy: Rao on the prowl

Brave words; but off the record, the comrades admit to being rattled. Some Left Front leaders, including CPI(M) state secretary and politburo member Anil Biswas, even question the practice of observers going about their jobs with photographers in tow. "If they think they can get away with it, they are wrong. Their highhandedness may lead to a mass upsurge," he says.

Prima facie, the Left has good reasons to be worried. In the 2001 assembly polls, a particular booth in Goghat constituency in South 24 Parganas, which is considered "sensitive", recorded a total of 936 votes -all cast in favour of the CPI(M). In Purshura in Hooghly, another booth recorded 1,105 votes in favour of the CPI(M), and only one for the Trinamul. And in Garbeta in Midnapore, yet another sensitive constituency, the Trinamul received less than 10 votes in 13 booths, while the CPI(M) got between 509 and 875 in each of them. There are thousands of such examples through the state. Statistically, such a distribution of votes looks questionable. But CPI(M) leaders are quick to defend their party. "Unlike other parties, our cadres begin preparing for the next elections within 24 hours of results being announced (see How The Left Front Poll Machinery Works). That is why we continue to win election after election," says Bose.

The elections are due in May; it's already February; and the electoral rolls have to be published by the middle of this month. Is there enough time to revise and update the rolls within this time? "The updation of rolls is a continuous process," says an EC official. "If we feel the need to include the names of genuine voters and delete those of false voters, we'll continue to do so even after February."

The EC's promise of a "free and fair" election apart, two other factors are expected to play a crucial role in the forthcoming polls. This is the first time the Left will face off against the Congress in a state even while it props up a Congress-led government in Delhi. These elections will also test the electoral viability of Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee's pro-reforms, pro-industry stance for the first time.

Will the Left Front again trump its opponents and win a renewed mandate? Or will Rao and his team succeed in untying this Gordian knot? That's impossible to predict. But it's fair to say that the focus this time will be on the EC, its man on the spot, and his mission. What he does over the next three months could have far reaching consequences for the country.