AUGUST 18, 2002
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Durable Defiance
The Indian consumer market for durables has defied the direst predictions of market cassandras. Category after category, from CTVs to refrigerators, is showing buoyancy in an otherwise gloomy scenario. Is this a market trend-or just the result of some smart marketing by a few players? An investigation.


Question Of Reliability
Foreign tour operators are fed up with India, and are fast deleting 'India'-specific pages from their websites and brochures. Could this be happening? Well, passenger traffic is down, and could fall further. The reasons are many. Among them, what's seen as an uninviting stance of the Indian authorities.

More Net Specials
Business Today,  August 4, 2002
 
 
REPORTER'S DIARY
State Of Gulls
Down south in Tamil Nadu, people are old-fashioned and conservative. Maybe that's why they're gullible investors.
Sudarsan Chit Fund: The latest in a long line

When Chennai-based Sudarsan chit fund faced a run on deposits last month-par for the course in a city used to finance companies going under or their promoters going underground-its Managing Director R. Velayuthan requisitioned the services of a dea ex machina. The personage in question was his wife K.R. Vijaya, a buxom Kollywood (that's how the Chennai film industry is known) actress of yore best known for her portrayal of sundry goddesses. It was she who issued a public statement emphasising her spouse's innocence and promising that every investor would be paid back in full.

  Where's It Headed Now  
  "Jharkhand Want More"  
  See No Harm  

Since 1996, a series of similar events have dented the reputation the Tamils have of being conservative (ha!) and good in math. More than 12 lakh depositors have collectively waved goodbye to around Rs 1,945 crore. This, despite Tamil Nadu being the first state to pass an investor-protection legislation, Tamil Nadu Protection of Interests of Depositors Act. The Economic Offences Wing (EOW) of the state police, and the special courts that were created have had little impact. If anything, the get-rich-quick schemes have become more innovative

Thus far, the EOW has had 573 cased registered with it; 111 have been settled satisfactorily with investors being paid in full; and in 15 cases, the promoters have been jailed (seven unlucky souls are spending 13 years in prison). But eow Inspector General K.R. Shyam Sundar believes there is much that remains to be done. ''Of the Rs 1,945 crore, only Rs 401 crore has been recovered.''

And some of the promoters have disappeared. The EOW tracked takeover tycoon P. Rajarathinam rather ingeniously (from his IP address on a e-mail response), but the man is believed to have fled the country after obtaining a stay on one of the cases.

Disillusioned investors, victims of their own greed and their misplaced faith in the credentials of the promoters, rely on the Federation of Investors' Association to keep the fight going. Run by 72-year-old D. Ramamoorthy, the association has now decided to open negotiations with defaulters directly. ''We have approached the various agencies to give us freedom to initiate our own negotiations,'' says Ramamooorthy whose sense of urgency is driven by a recognition of his own frailty. ''There is much to be done and no political will to do them,'' he sighs. In Andhra Pradesh, he points out, Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu has at least listened to hapless investors. In Tamil Nadu, none of the last three chief ministers have met with the Federation. Oops!


SENSE(X)
Where's It Headed Now?
The Sensex slips 6.3 per cent in five trading sessions ending July 26. What's up, doc?

Faut-Il Brûler la bourse?" asked a July 23 headline in France's leftist daily Liberation. Loose translation: Should we burn the exchange? That incendiary question was provoked by a 40 per cent drop in the CAC 40 over eight weeks. Other exchanges around the world weren't spared either: the nasdaq Composite breached its September 2001 low to touch 1,229.05 on July 23; the Dow Jones Industrial dropped 23 per cent the same day; and the FTSE 100, 21 per cent. Closer home, the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex lost 206 points in five trading sessions ending July 26. And when the market reopened the following week, it rapidly plummeted to a nine-month low of 2,955.10 before rising to 3,030 by the day's close.

So, is the Sensex back to tracking the NASDAQ? Deepak Mohoni, a Mumbai-based investment analyst thinks so. "The connection between global indices and Indian indices is high when the markets are weak". That means the Sensex could test its September 2001 lows much like the Nasdaq Composite did. "The markets could go down five to seven percent from current levels," predicts Alok Vajpeyi, coo, DSP Merrill Lynch Investment Managers. In the long run, though, he claims, the markets will move significantly up. That's optimistic, and it is also goes against what John Maynard Keynes had to say of the long run.


LAND GRAB
"Jharkhand Want More"
The CM's intervention could end the messy Tata Steel-state government stand-off.

The legacy of the now-extinct zamindari system and political wrangling is holding up the renewal of a lease deal between Tata Steel and the Jharkhand government (Tata Steel's facility is in Jamshedpur, Jharkhand). The government wants back-dues of Rs 6,000 crore. If Tata Steel (sales of Rs 7,693.11 crore, profits of Rs 204.90 crore, and reserves of Rs 3,077.99 crore in 2001-02) were to pay this amount, the result on its financials would be catastrophic. Jharkhand cm Babu Lal Marandi has now promised a speedy resolution, but with his own revenue minister Madu Singh pushing for the Rs 6,000 crore, it ain't over till the fat lady sings.

A Brief History Of The Disputed
18,000 Acres

1907-1912: The Indian government hands over the land to the Tata Group as freehold-this is listed in the books of account as the Tata Zamindari.

1928: The Indian Government allows the Tata Group to collect revenues from tenants farming parts of the land.

1947: Indian Independence.

1956: The Bihar Land Reform Act is passed. The state government makes no distinction between agricultural and industrial land. Tata Steel presses its case that industrial land cannot be equated with Zamindari even if it has been so designated in the books. The state government finally buys this argument.

1967: Chief Minister Karpoori Thakur's government claims Tata Steel has no right to the land. A court battle ensues.

1985: Thanks largely to the efforts of then Tata Steel head honcho Russi Mody and then Chief Minister of Bihar Jagannath Mishra, the fight ends in an out of court settlement. The terms: A new 99-year lease is to be drawn with retrospective effect from 1966. The renewal period (not on the title of the land but on rentals and revenue) is set at 30 years.

1996: The movement for a separate state of Jharkand (Jamshedpur is part of this) delays the renewal of the lease.

2000: Jharkhand (now a state) wants all the revenue for itself (none to go to Bihar). It claims a revenue loss of Rs 5,900 crore from Tata Steel's transfer of several subleases. Tata Steel rubbishes the claim.

2002: Jharkhand CM Babulal Marandi promises to exercise his authority and renew the lease.


HIC! CUPS
See No Harm
The government clamps down hard, really hard, on surrogate advertising.

Apple juice or whisky? That's the question

It's a Rs 9,000-crore industry that contributes Rs 18,000 crore to the exchequer through taxes and it is miffed with the government's effort to deny it its rightful share of sip. The proposed ban on surrogate advertising, could, if enforced strictly, choke the liquor industry. ''We know what we can't do now,'' says Kalyan Ganguly, President (Breweries Division), UB. ''We have to get innovative.''

For instance, UB can't advertise its Kingfisher brand of mineral water although it sells close to a million cases a year. And so, the industry, which spent Rs 300 crore on surrogate advertising last year, almost a third of it on mass-media, prepares itself for a future where it will have to launch, build, and sustain brands without advertising.

The genesis of the latest chapter in liquor advertising is a show-cause notice issued by the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting to four television channels, Zee, Star, Sony, and Aaj Tak for carrying surrogate advertising. Most channels responded by blacking out surrogate ads for liquor brands altogether. The amount involved is a piffling Rs 55-60 crore, about 1.5 per cent of the total TV ad pie.

The liquor industry's argument that some of the brands being advertised are genuine extensions has found few takers thus far. ''To us what matters is the government's guideline on what's surrogate and what's a genuine extension,'' says Raj Nayak, Executive Vice President (Sales & Marketing), Star Network.

To nip what it considers a problem in the bud, the government is also considering legislation that will disallow liquor companies from classifying advertising and promotional spend as expenses. Our take: if it bothers the government so much, why not ban the product altogether?

 

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