There were, it is estimated, 100,000 wild tigers in India at the beginning of the 20th century. A hundred and six years later, that number has dwindled to 1,500-1,800.

Will the tiger survive? And, can legislative fiat change the alarming situation on the ground? The government has at last pushed the Wildlife (Protection) Amendment Act 2006 through Parliament to give teeth to Project Tiger and tiger conservation, but the general feeling is that it is too little too late. Worldwide, there are already more tigers in captivity (there are 15,000 captive tigers in the us alone) than in the wild. The question is: what can be done to save the latter from extinction?

Says Valmik Thapar, Director, Ranthambore Foundation, a conservation organisation: "This new law proposes a National Tiger Authority, which will have representatives of tribals. What does this mean? The interests of tiger and its habitat will be increasingly ceded to human communities. The government wants 'peaceful coexistence between men and tigers'. The reality is that tigers and humans can't live together."

But officials and former officials are quick to jump to the defence of the government. "It's only because of Project Tiger that the tiger is still surviving in India. Look at Bhutan, Thailand, Indonesia, China, Myanmar and other countries where the wild tiger is almost extinct," says P.K. Sen, former Director of Project Tiger and outgoing director of World Wildlife Fund's Species Programme.

That's really a disingenuous argument. Experts say that Project Tiger, though very successful initially, has lost its way. Belinda Wright, Executive Director, Wildlife Protection Society of India (WPSI) says: "When it was set up, Project Tiger was the most tenacious wildlife conservation programme of its kind in the world. It was extraordinarily successful in protecting tiger habitat and the big cat itself. But new threats were emerging. In the 1980s, for example, China ran out of its own supply of wild tigers that fed its traditional medicine market and India became the new source of supply. This illegal China-India trade in tiger skins and parts has since become the biggest threat to the Indian tiger." Thapar agrees. "There is no doubt that Project Tiger was quite successful in protecting tigers initially; in 1989, our wild tiger population was a healthy 4,000. But since then, Project Tiger has gone downhill," he says. Sen puts the population of wild tigers in India at 1,500 and Wright at a marginally more optimistic 1,800; but those are still less than half the 1989 figure. But why should that be surprising when 250 tigers are poached ever year?

A detailed investigation by WPSI has shown that smugglers are using the ancient silk route between India and China to conduct their illegal business. Lhasa, in Tibet, is the primary destination and distribution point for tiger skins and other parts. The trade has also become more organised and sophisticated. In 1999, for example, three tiger skins, 50 leopard skins and five otter skins were seized in Ghaziabad; the paper-thin tanning and the precise folding of the skins indicated a level of organisation that had not been seen before. There are credible reports that tiger carcasses, pelts and parts are sold openly in the Tibetan capital while Chinese officials benignly look the other way.

"Through the 1980s and 1990s, the threat of poaching and smuggling was turning the tide against Project Tiger. But the authorities did not do anything to change and adapt the project to face these new threats," says Wright. The government's attitude, in fact, ranges from the uninterested to the callous. Last September, for example, there was a large seizure of tiger skins in Melghat (Maharashtra). "The police told us later that no one from the government even bothered to contact them. No one cares," she adds.

So, what ails Project Tiger? Bureaucratic sloth, corruption and the lack of political will to take on illegal wildlife trade though India is a signatory to cites (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species). The Centre's role under the Project Tiger is limited to making recommendations and releasing funds to various state governments. And, as the example of Sariska (where the tiger population was found to be extinct, despite officials' claims on the presence of at least 24 big cats) showed, the central government has no way of checking ground level (mostly unreliable, and, shockingly, often deliberately fudged) data provided by state governments. This allows officials to get away, literally, with murder.

Then, there are 10,000 vacancies for forest guards; these are not being filled up. The average age of forest guards is 55; they are poorly trained and use antiquated arms. "The government doesn't fill up these vacancies, doesn't train and equip these guards and doesn't enforce wildlife laws," says Thapar. "So, what else can you expect?"

"In states such as Uttaranchal and Orissa, the fight against wildlife crime takes place only on paper. Besides, the conviction rate of those arrested for such crimes is negligible. And India has not been able to put into place any effective transnational treaties against wildlife crimes, especially with China and Nepal," says Wright.

Sen gives the problem an economic perspective. "At a broader level, one of the factors militating against Indian efforts to protect its forests and wildlife is that the country's economic development has left its interiors untouched. While urban India has been growing wealthier over the years, absolutely nothing has changed in the interiors, where forests support both wildlife and the local populations. So, a growing, and increasingly impoverished, human population is eating up the forests where tigers live."

WPSI's assessment shows that Sariska may not be an isolated case. Tigers in Palmau (Jharkhand), Valmiki (Bihar), Simlipal (Orissa), Nagarjuna Sagar (Andhra Pradesh), Indrawati (Chhattisgarh), Namdapha (Arunachal Pradesh), Buxa (West Bengal), Manas (Assam), and Melghat (Maharashtra) are also on the verge of extinction. Panna (Madhya Pradesh) is also threatened, but the situation there is still debatable. Incidentally, the government has not released any tiger census figures since 2002. In 2005, it started work on a new methodology for counting tigers, but the data won't come into the public domain for another year. "By the time the new count comes out, won't it be too late?" asks Wright.

Rajesh Gopal, Director, Project Tiger, brushes aside all criticisms. "Project Tiger has put the big cat on the assured path of recovery and despite what the doomsayers say, this project will not let the wild tiger die," he says, adding that addressing the needs of forest communities is critical to the success of conservation efforts. "If the forest communities are alienated, poaching will only become more serious as they will help the poachers. Sariska has awakened us to the dangers of making a tiger reserve an isolated fortress. The stark reality is that Project Tiger will not be successful without involving the forest communities," he says.

Can tiger farming help? Thapar dismisses it out of hand. "The idea of tiger farming has nothing to do with conservation. It is a stupid idea that talks of supply and demand (of body parts)," he says. Cost is also a factor. Breeding captive tigers is expensive and time consuming. Hence, poaching will remain a viable financial option in the foreseeable future. "I'm afraid, we may soon lose the battle unless something drastic is done," says Wright.

Is there, then no hope for the king of the Indian jungle? The new National Tiger Authority will facilitate and support tiger reserve management in the states, while the Wildlife Crime Bureau, a statutory body on the lines of the Narcotics Control Bureau and the Criminal Bureau of Investigation, will collect intelligence on and investigate all wildlife-related crimes. Will this help? Given the political dimensions to the problem of balancing tribal and tiger rights, there is little reason to believe that the battle to save the tiger is truly being joined.